Profitable or Not???

[Tosho]

Hi guys srry for my english in advance.It’s 1/2 game but with the opt straddle 5 max buy in $500.
I am on straddle with Ac-Jc ,with $350 .Old guy limp’s on utg it fold’s to btn lag plr raises to $20 on the btn sb fold’s ,bb fold’s .The old guy has $800 the lag plr has $600stack.I call the add $15 the old guy 3b to $50 the btn call the $30 i call the $30.I have history with the old guy i know his range is pollaryzed A-A or K-K.So the pot is $158 ,the flop is Ah-10c-5c.I check the old guy cbet $70 the btn fold’s.So here is my thought proccess ,the old guy cbet is top set or A-K,and some times K-K but i think in this spot tough , so i put him on A-K or top set.And i opt to shove he snap call and he had top set and the turn was 10s, river was 3c.What’s your opinion .Thanks in advance for your opinion.

[Old Dog]

It looks like you shoved knowing that he would call, counting only on your flush draw to pull you through. Flush draws come in about one time in four, and you’re getting essentially two-to-one against the old guy, maybe three-to-one if the button calls as well. Getting two- or three-to-one on a four-to-one draw is not profitable in the long run.
I believe that the general rule of thumb is that if you’re going all in and getting poor odds, you want to be the one with the made hand, not the one drawing.

[turbulent1]

If you knew his preflop range has you crushed you should just fold preflop.

[Author]

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