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Hi,
Some context…
2/2 Euro game. Usual buy in is around 200-300 Euro. We are playing 7-handed and have only been playing for an hour. I have been caught bluffing once on the river, but for the rest nothing crazy has happened yet.
Middle position player (middle aged splashy guy who usually plays 2/4) raises to 12, which happens to be the usual opening size tonight in this game.
The villain in this hand is to his right and he calls. I played with this villain a couple of times before and I have seen him to do some crazy stuff from time to time. Last time I played with him, I raised UTG when I had a tight image for the evening and he open shoved 270 Euro in the cut-off with AQo. This evening he is constantly on his phone and is not paying attention. Some hands earlier there was an all-in and I had to relay the action after he asked what happened.Looking at the blinds I’m pretty sure that they are calling and I toss in the call with QT of spades on the button. I have about 160 in my stack. The blinds call.
Flop: 7s 2s 4c
Pot: 60 EuroIt checks to me and I bet a 24. Everybody folds except the villain who calls.
Turn: 9s
Pot: 108 Euro.
Villain leads out for 70 Euro. Have 124 left in my stack. Villain has me covered.
What’s your play here?
Regards,
CG
I don’t love it, but I am shoving here. Villian is representing a flush, but: (1) Villain does some crazy stud; (2) Villian could have a smaller flush (although the fact that he was the preflop raiser is certainly concerning in that regard; (3) Villain’s check on the flop is odd and not entirely consistent with a monster draw hand (could be a slow played set, for example). I think you are not deep enough to get away here those times you are beat.
On a side note, I think there is merit to smooth calling the turn (knowing you are committed to getting all in on the river no matter how bad the river card appears due to pot commitment). Calling the turn might keep sets and smaller flushes thinking they are ahead (so they pay in full on the river). You are never getting a set to fold, so shoving the turn doesn’t really protect your hand. The only hand that might fold to a shove is a hand with the Ace of Spades by itself with little or nothing to go with it. But a crazy player probably can’t fold the nut draw in a pot this big regardless of the odds (which are going to be close or good enough to call regardless).
Thanks for the reply. The villain wasn’t the preflop raiser, he called the opening raise of the player to his right. So maybe that changes his perceived range a bit.
I agree, you’re jamming on this one. You have the 3rd nuts. I don’t think you are quite deep enough to be flat-calling. If anything, I’d say a flat call would look even stronger than a jam, and might prevent any more money from him going into the pot. But in reality, either one signifies that you are willing to put all your money in the pot.
Villain could have a lot of hands, and Ax suited is definitely in there (Kx too if he’s crazy). But there’s also a lot suited connectors/gapers and lower pairs.
Also, I think you mean the villain was on the opener’s left.
Cheers!
Hey CG,
I think you can 3-bet this hand if you want sometimes if you think the MP player is opening too wide and folds to 3-bets. On the flop I don’t mind a check back or a bet. The turn it seems like a mandatory shove. He’s not folding to an additional 54. He will have weaker flushes, sets, overpairs and semi-bluffs so you need to call. If you’re folding this hand here then are you only calling with Ace and King high flushes? That would only be a few hands and Villain can just bet here with any 2 cards and win.
Oops, my bad. Idd, first player on the opener’s left. He was the first one on my right 🙂
Thanks for the feedback. I did indeed jam the turn.
– Occasionally I see players betting big with medium flushes who are scared of another flush card peeling off.
– I have seen him make weird moves before.
– He can have all the sets, two pairs….etc.
– Guess I have to call with a portion of my top range here.My gut did scream small AXx when he did it. Wondering if I should have gone with that feeling alone, hence the post.
Hey Robert,
The opener is the type of player that rarely folds once he has put in money preflop. His 3B-folding range is pretty small. So at the time I ruled it out. I reckon it might work against him, but it would at least need to be (slightly bigger than) a pot size raise against him.
That would have been +/-52 …. he probably calls, player in the middle then has to put in 44 more for a pot of 108. He might fold, might not. Shoving the flop in that case. I would have a pot size bet left if heads up, so idd not a bad idea.
Thanks.
Let me make it simple, based on the pot and based on your stack… once you make the Q-flush on the turn, there’s no way your not getting max value. If he has a big flush… you’re losing the stack. The only benefit is that you have some blockers and if he had a suited ace, probably a good chance he 3-bets in his position… if he’s aggressive.
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