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1/3 I have around 700 villan has around 1200 to start the hand. Villan has shown to be a competent reg who is relatively tight.
Couple of limpers to me in Hijack I raise to 18 with 99. Villan makes it 45 in the Cut off. Folds to me and I call. Flop comes 9d4c3h (favourable). I check villan bets 50 I call. Turn comes 6d I check villan bets 100. I raise to 250, villan thinks for about 15 seconds and calls. Turn comes Jh and I jam for roughly 350. villan thinks for a short amount of time before making the fold.
Upon thinking about this hand for quite a while was my river bet too large, should I have downsized more to try and get some value from an overpair rather than pushing them off? I know in relation to the pot it is not a big bet but at these stakes where the buy-in is capped at 300 its a big bet. Should I have gone more for a 150 to try and get the value or was I right to jam? At this point the hands he could have are going to be overpairs or potentially AK/AQ/AJ that might have c bet then turned a flush draw. I thought about checking and letting him go for it if he had AK/AQ/AJ but thought I would miss too much value if he had overpairs where he would most likely check back to get to showdown.
Definitely jam. The pot is about 700, so you’re really only jamming about half pot. Betting less just screams that you have the nuts and that you’re looking for any value, especially after the turn C/R. Checking doesn’t make sense because he’s checking back everything but JJ.
My guess is he had AKdd and turned a backdoor flush draw, otherwise you would have lost him on the flop. I suppose if he has AA or KK here he might call turn/fold river jam, but I think the right play is just going for full value.
What I’ve found in lower stakes, is that most aren’t taking into account bet to pot ratio. Most people see the $350 as “holy S%$&, that’s a huge bet”, rather than getting 3 to 1 on a call.
Seeing as you check-raised the turn showing strength… a down bet may have had some merit, say $150-175. I think if you were playing $2/5, it was the right bet size.
Nice hand nonetheless!
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