River Bluff Shove or Value Bet?

[Jared H]

I find myself in an interesting spot here and want to hear other opinions.
Some notes about this hand:
– Villain has been extremely loose playing around 30-40% of hands and is very sticky postflop
One example of this is from a few hands ago. He raised the pot from MP to $15. The Button with $60 behind rips in his stack, and villain calls and flips Ks7s. He ended up flopping a king and beating pocket jacks.
– 1-2-5 due to straddles on the button with $175 effective in this hand

Action starts with SB (Villain) calling the straddle. I look down at KQ of clubs in the cutoff and raise the pot up to $20. The Button and SB both call.

Flop comes Ac Qd 9s -> SB checks it over to me and I go for a c-bet to the size of $35. My thought here is that the button is incentivized to play a wider range in position as the straddler, so I should have a range advantage here. Also, the SB can be calling with a wide range of hands as well due to what I’ve seen of him at this point. The button player ends up folding, and the SB calls the $35 bet.

The pot is now $130 going into the turn. The run-out is now Ac Qd 9s Ah. SB checks it over to me here, and I see merit in both betting and checking here. Betting here seems good because I feel I do have a range advantage here especially since he has checked twice, and he should be folding a lot of hands if I bet here. He can only reasonably continue with hands such as an ace, a worse queen, or maybe jacks/tens. However, I decide to check because I do already have strong showdown value especially since the board double blocks aces. Also, it would be very polarizing if he checks here and checks river because that doesn’t seem like a very good line if he were to have an Ace.

The river brings a blank (the 5 of diamonds). He once again checks it over to me, and I decide to move all-in for the remaining $120 effective. At the table, my thought process here is that I almost turn my hand into a bluff representing the Ace. Also, I do have strong showdown value so it might outright be the best hand going for max value. My big question here is should I size down here? The way I see it, he can only call here with an ace or a queen of his own, maybe he might get frisky with jacks occasionally. If I were to go for thin value maybe he can call that with a few more hands such as those including a nine. On the flipside, it feels like an autoprofit bet because he should be folding more than the breakeven point of around 50%.

I am relatively new to poker roughly 2 years studying and playing microstakes while going to school/working. I think my thought process is alright here on each street. However, I would like to hear any opinions, and what you all might be thinking throughout this hand. Anything helps, thanks.

[Patrick Brennan]

Honestly I agree with everything you did up until the river. Your opponent obviously doesn’t have an A based on how he’s played to this point. But the problem with the all in is you put your opponent in a situation where he can only really call you when he has you beat.

You’ll win the hand and get no more value everytime he doesn’t have an A or a boat… rarely get more value when he has a Q.

I say going for thin value is the best bet. You’re pot committing yourself anyways so why not make an extra $20-$30-$40 profit on the hands he has more than nothing but doesn’t beat you.

Also, don’t always assume that just because a player plays loose pre-flop and is sticky on the flop it means that he is going to call pot sized bets with meager holdings on the river.

Other than that I like your pre and post flop bet sizing. I like the turn check because if your opponent called with a weak Ace in flop he will probably check on the turn hoping you continue with the aggression.

Thanks for the hand!

[Author]

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