River top set should I fold?

[Joe]

Ok so I’m playing in a 1-1 game stacks between $200 and $500, UG+1 opens to $6( he is a young 20 something that study’s the game and I’ve played with several times) tight aggressive. I have “Kc” “Qc” in the High Jack. I raise to $18. Small blind calls. It’s my first time playing with him but he seems to call down light and loves to chase draws. Flop: Qh Jd 7h
SB checks, Utg+ 1 bets $15, I raise to $50, SB shoves all in for $16 more. Utg+1 calls, I call. Utg+1 is big stack and has about $400 behind. I have $255. Turn is 4h. Utg+1 checks. I check. River is Qd. Utg+1 bets me all in. I tank for a while he is not the player to play a flush this way. I’m putting him on a Qx hand. I end up making the call. He has “Qs” “Jh”. Was I wrong to call? Ps the original all had “Ah” “5h”

[Laurens]

u rivered trips, but anyway 😉

preflop I think raising with KQs is a bit strange, certainly against a tight agressive guy. if he opens UTG he usually will have 88+ and A10+, maybe KQ or KJ. we don’t do very well against those hands preflop, while we might be able to flop something nice like a flush draw or straight draw, top 2… If he 4 bets us, we are in an akward position and should fold most of the time with a hand as weak as KQs. I prefer the 3 bet ( bluff) with hands that are a bit weaker and still block nutted top pairs like QQ, JJ, KK… hands like KQ and KJ offsuited fit better imo.

flop: I think flatting here is better then raising. you can raise to charge flush draws and straight draws, but since your opponent opened UTG and c-bets, he very likely has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ… the only hand we are doing well against is AK, so thats little we protect from. I can even see a fold here, since we only beat his weak hands like 88-1010 and AJ. since he didn’t 4-bet us preflop, I think I would just make the call. The jam from the sb has little meaning, the amount changes nothing for us.

turn: 4 of hearts is a bad card for us. We don’t beat the flush draw anymore, so we can’t even beat most of his semi-bluffs that he had on the flop anymore. logical check back.

river: we improve ( a little), we can beat KK ( we block that ) and AA ( no 4-bet pre) now. if I follow correct, he bets the pot to put you all-in. since you think he is a tight agressive player that knows what he is doing, my guess would be he has JJ, rivered the full-house on us and tries to get paid by a Q and a Flush. It also would explain the no 4bet pre and bet/call line on the flop. this is a fold to me. we jus’t don’t beat him in enough hands, and there is also still the sb in play for 1/3 of the pot if we call. + he would have to show his hand to take the pot down vs the sb. so I would fold here.

and after the hand, I would change my mental note of “tight agressive kid that knows what he is doing” to ” loose agressive kid that can be exploited with premiums”

[Joe]

Thanks the more I look back at the play (and take the emotion out of it. The fold seems pretty obvious.

[Author]

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