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AsAc in sb in a 5-handed 1/3 game. Mp raises to 20. Folds to me. I 3bet to 65. He calls. We’re $930 effective to start the hand. Flop Td8c5d. I bet 90. He calls. Turn 3s. I check to pot control because we’re so deep (our stack to pot ratio is about 3 to 1 at this point) and if I bet he could raise me while I’m out of position with either a set or a draw and I’d be in a gross spot. It also balances my range for when I c-bet and then check the turn. Also, I’m not positive I can get 3 streets of value from a worse hand. He checks back. River 7h. I bet 250. He tanks for almost 2 minutes and is talking about why I would check the turn and asks if I have a missed flush draw. Then he jams for $785 effective. At this point, I’m so lost in the hand. I tank for a while and am really unsure here. All I’m beating is a missed draw or some ambitious bluff. I eventually call and he flips over 77 for a rivered set. What are your thoughts on the hand?
Pretty sick river.
Only a few things I see here. Pre-flop and flop action is fine..
I think you have to bet turn. If he has it and raises, you’re probably calling anyways given the fact you called the river. But you have to charge the draws, and you have to charge his pairs that aren’t sets (this includes JJ, QQ, and KK). Yeah, you might fold out some lower pairs here with a $150-200 bet, but you also aren’t giving a free card for him to 2-out you.
I wouldn’t be so concerned about balancing your range at this level. How many players are paying attention to every hand and every bet? I think it’s more important to get as much value as possible from JJ, QQ, etc., and bet all 3 streets, even if you only get called on two.
The river, I suppose it’s possible to find a fold here, but really hard given the hand. He shouldn’t have any two pair or straight hands in his range given pre-flop action. I also rule out JJ, QQ, and KK because all of those should have bet the turn, especially with 2 diamonds on the flop (although I’ve seen stranger things happen, but these hands are unlikely). So that leaves sets (and really just 777 because the other sets should be betting turn with that flush draw out there), or flush draws. You’re getting about 2.5:1, so are you really good often enough to justify the call? Only a few players at this level are able to make that bluff, and it’s usually pretty obvious who they are since most players are too conservative to do this.
One of the basic beginner plays to watch for is the speech. He offers reasons for his bet (saying that he thinks you’re only bluffing) and gives you a reason to think that he may be weak himself. This is the classic acting weak when strong. Beware the speech!
I’d 3 Bet a little larger to $75 pre. The flop I’d like 2/3 pot so $100. I’d be looking to check the turn or river with one pair and I’d rather bet the turn if I’m in position (I assume you are but you don’t explicitly state it), and check the river. Bet ~$150 on the turn.
River is a check and then you don’t have to stack off. He isn’t check-raising you with KK, QQ, JJ or 99 (hands you beat).
Basically, don’t stack off with one pair for 300 big blinds.
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