Run bad turns around, then I can't fold.

[Heath]

Playing $1/2NL at Cherokee last Sunday night. Wasn’t really catching any cards but the occasional small pocket pair which I would call raises to see flops with and miss every time, so 3 or so hours in I was down to maybe $60 or so. The way the session was going for me I wasn’t gonna put more money on the table, so down about $140. A drunk lady at the table was getting in the habit of shoving when it was her action which was frustrating me on top of being card dead. I pickup 88’s at one point and expecting the drunk lady to jam, I limped in, then she jammed as predicted. Folded back to me and I called. She flipped over A3o and I held up so I get a double up. I picked up a few small pots after that and I’m back up to $175. So the run bad has started to turn around.

Look down at QQ on my big blind and it folds around to the button who makes it $15 to go. SB calls the $15, and I raise to $70 leaving me just over $100 behind. Button tanks for a while and folds. SB is a player I’ve been at the table with many times, she’s a plenty competent player and usually has at least $500 in front of her on a $200 max buy in table. As soon as the button folds she jams all in, having me covered. My image at the table at that point is seeing many flops then folding to most bets on the flop, so I can’t decide if she’s thinking I’d fold to her shove or if the best starting hand I’ve seen in about 4 hours has seriously run into KK or AA, but I call. Sure enough, she flips over AA (f***!!!). The flop comes A910, and a 4 on the turn has me drawing dead.

1) Am I cursed at poker?
2) Given this happens preflop, how many of you could realistically find a fold in this spot?

[Sugarmaan]

1.) No
2.) No one

[Chuck M]

+1

[Lothar]

1. Don´t believe you are cursed. Poker sometimes is this way. Patience is one of the most important things in poker.
2. I would not fold either in this spot.

[David Wibel]

Never, never, never, never fold QQ preflop when below 100BB. And realistically you should never fold KK preflop ever. These hands are so strong it’s ridiculous. Yes you will lose to AA and get drawn out on by AK, these things happen and it is normal. It takes well over 300BB before you can think of folding QQ or KK preflop and even then it is better to call the 3 or 4 bet if you really “smell” AA.

Let’s talk about the badbeat mentality that so many of us get. You have to remember that you will get AA over KK both ways, no two ways about it. It sucks when it happens to you but that is just how the math works. Because humans naturally have confirmation bias we are much more likely to remember the times when we got the bad end of the beat over the good one.

My own example. I played in a tournament last week. I called a Button open over 2 limpers and one limper called with QJo. Flop came AKT rainbow, I check limper bets and the raiser shoves all in, I call and the limper eventually folds KTs face up. The Button had AA and didn’t improve. Am I going to remember that in a month, not really. I really sucked out on him but it doesn’t do much to me. Now another time was last month I 3 bet QQ to 60 pre, get two callers and shoved on a 567 rainbow board and get called by K8o and he hits a K on the turn. That I am likely to remember for a while just because it cost me 200 and was a ludicrous situation.

[Han]

I don’t see any fault in your play here. In fact, the SB played this hand terribly. She is in the SB and does not close the action. She flats the BTN raise, allowing you to possibly call and take the hand multi-way. Lastly, she has the worst position in the hand. She’ll virtually have no idea what the opponents could be holding and could potentially lose the pot, given her action. I find it unlikely this villain is competent. Maybe playing a nitty strategy, but not playing optimally from your description.

I do not fault your play here at all, just a cooler. David said it best, you cant fold this preflop given the effective stack and you are not cursed. Although, it feels like the cards are out to get you some times. I once got it all in preflop with KK against my opponents JJ, and the board gave him runner-runner straight. So we’ve all had those (f***!!!) moments.

If it affects your future play, take some time off to let the emotions clear. Come back to the felt after the fact.

[Author]

Posts