Should I call the turn shove?

[turbulent1]

This is a hand I played last night at a 1/2 game. Not entirely sure if should have called the turn shove, but I had been playing with villain for a few hours and he lost a decent sized pot a few hands earlier. He seemed to be on tilt a bit after that hand. He raised the next 2 hands, back to back, almost 10x.

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• This topic was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by turbulent1.

[Kevin Rex]

From a theory perspective this should be an easy fold. When he overbets the pot on the turn for like 6x you can fold so many hands without being exploitable and KQ with the diamond is just too low in your range to be calling a bet of this size.

Assuming you slow play flops with some frequency especially against aggressive or tilting players, it’s not unreasonable that you could have SO many better hands to call with here. You could have sets like 99 or JJ, two pair hands, you could have straights with KT or T8 (hopefully only suited), you could have a bunch of flushes.

Additionally, your opponent has so many hands in his range that are crushing you. Considering he raised from the Hijack he should have every nut flush combo in his range, lots of middling flushes, all of the sets and two pairs, all of the straights, etc. When the diamond comes in it’s kind of hard to think of many hands that he’s bluffing with too. Yes he may be tilting, but is he really just exploding with a 6x pot bet in a balanced way? It seems more likely that he is either weirdly jamming for value/protection with a very strong hand, or overplaying a hand like aces, kings, or ace-queen that is just tilted that another draw came in and had made up his mind on the flop that he was going to double up no matter what. I think you have the best hand here maybe 10% of the time at best. This board pretty squarely hits a HiJack opening range.

Because of the fact that your opponent can so frequently have made flushes and, especially, the nut flush, I think calling here with the redraw is pretty poor because you can so frequently been drawing to 7 outs or just be completely dead against a significant portion of his range. If you had the ace of diamonds in your hand, like AQ with the nut flush draw, then calling here might be better because you can’t ever be drawing dead. Still, though, you aren’t getting the correct price to redraw here here with the ace of diamonds. Even if all of your outs are live (which would not be the case if your opponent tilt-jammed AA or AQ w/ diamond, jammed a straight, had a flush, etc.) then you still need a price of about 3:1 to call with 13 outs which you clearly aren’t getting.

I’d just throw this hand away, you’re calling with a horrible price against his made hands (numerous) and his very few bluffs (ace of diamonds?) have equity against you. Calling here is a donation.

BUT, i’m glad to see the T came on the river and you dragged a nice sized pot. A little run good never hurt 🙂

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