Shove or Fold?

[Chris]

Ok. I have been thinking about this. Last night was in a tournament where 4 places paid and we had 5 left. 3 of the 5 players each had about 80k-120k. Then I had 60k and the last player had 25k.

At blinds 5k/10k with short stack in the SB. Hero is dealt 88 UTG. Most people so far at this final table have played tight so I would suspect I would steal the blinds most of the time.

But because of ICM and that he only has 2 blinds. Should I be folding this hand to make the money then start a shove fold strategy or should I be ripping it in here?

[Laurens]

I’m no expert on ICM, but I think that it would be a fold if you only think about ICM

If you are in it to win it it’s a clear shuff, with everybody having max 12 blinds

[Chris]

Well the payout structure was top heavy. I wanted to win but I should have probably folded and got into the money then started shove fold play to steal blinds from these weak players

[Old Dog]

Chris,
If you play just fo ICM, you’ll be down to about two orbits’ (8 hands) worth of chips when the small blind blinds out, even without an ante. That puts you in a mighty tough spot. If you shove with the 8’s and everyone behind you folds, the small blind is getting huge odds to call (call 25 into a pot of 40). Expect to get called very widely and be facing at least one overcard. No way the SB can let you pick up the blinds here at his expense. Your shove becomes (at best) 25 to earn the 15 already in plus the SB’s 25.

All that said, if you shove, the players behind you will recognize that the SB has to call and likely fold themselves unless they have a huge pair. So you’re unlikely to have to go against more than just the small blind.

The charts say shove, and I believe them. There is a large possibility that no one behind you or the BB has anything with which to give the SB a hard time, and this will be one of your few remaining opportunities with a decent hand to gather in chips. Time to shove and take advantage of everyone else’s hesitance on the bubble.

[Author]

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