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Hey all,
Playing $1/$2. Villain is a decent reg player. Never seems to get out of line, but I haven’t played a ton with him. I am the effective stack (just barely) at about $380. (I flopped bottom set to beat an over-pair with my first hand of the session, so at the time I’m liking bottom sets)66s in the SB. EP opens to $10, gets 1 caller (villain!) in MP. I have 66s in the SB and call. Three to the flop:
Flop: As9c6s. The opener checks. Villain bets $15. I raise it to $40. The opener folds. V asks to see how much I have behind. I move my arms, let him have a look. He then pretty quickly raises it to $140. And I go deeeeeep into the tank.
Here’s my breakdown: He does not have AAs (would have 3-bet). He could have 99s, although this player probably would have 3-bet those, but perhaps not (the original opener was a looser player). Kx or Qx of spades is possible, but wouldn’t he just call with that? A9 or A6 could be there as well, although I doubt A6. AK-AJ would be 3-bets pre, but maybe A10. So basically, I think either 99s, A9, a weirdly played AK/AQ, and lastly maybe a very aggressive flush draw.
After about 2 minutes in the tank, I re-shove it. ($380 total). There’s so few hands (3 combinations, discounting AAs) currently beating me, I think I have to go for it against flush draws, two-pairs, and strong Aces. But I am really not sure if this was the right play or not.
Thoughts on this? Skipping results-oriented outcomes for the moment.
It’s an interesting decision. Pre-flop makes sense, no issues. On the flop I like the raise, could be doing this with KJ, or 78 of spades, sets, and x9 of spades. I don’t know what bluffs you have here so I don’t know what value hands villain can really call with that you beat. Exactly A9 without the 9 of spades? I think in this situation you need to have a couple of bluffs, either 78 of spades or 98 of spades?
It’s a difficult spot, I may want to call and then shove or call a shove on any non-spade. In live play I would probably shove as well as value and to deny equity.
My thought, in general, is you don’t fold a set. So, I shove and force the draw to pay to beat you. If he has the 9’s he has you beat and that’s poker.
If you rule out him having AA, and him being MP I would certainly hope he isn’t just calling there if that’s what he has, you literally have 3 combos of pocket 99’s you are worried about here. Aside from that, assuming he is betting with either two pair or a flush draw, I think you are far enough ahead to make this a good shove. Or I could be completely wrong… I think I’d shove here as well though.
I definitely do not have any bluffs for my whole stack (double the max buy-in) here. Not sure if this would be a good spot to bluff in general, facing a bet/re-raise, but I’ll think about it…
As another guy said after the hand, “TFP – That’s Fuckin’ Poker”.
Villain snap calls pretty quick. Neither of us flip our hand. The board has a 5 of diamonds turn. Annnnd the river is the case 6. I show my hand right away, and he pretty disgustedly mucks his hand, claiming 99s. There’s a tiny part of me that doubts him, but I very much believe I just 1-outed him. And I take down my biggest pot ever, about $800…in a $1/$2 game no less.
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