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Whats up guys! I run 9to5poker.com and thought I’d come check out the forums over here. Had an interesting spot tonight I wanted to run by everyone
Game: 3/5 NL Hold’em buy up to the biggest stack
There are some interesting dynamics worth noting in this hand. The villain and I have history. This is the 2nd time I’ve played with him at these stakes, but have played a decent amount with him at 2/3. The first time we played 3/5 together I 4bet him with AA OOP. He flatted and we saw a K high flop. I checked and he spazzed out and jammed for 1k. He later said he had a pocket pair. As soon as he saw me at the table tonight he brought this hand up and made it clear he was out to get me.
Villain is very wealthy and works trading Institutional Stocks for millions of dollars/day. He often plays much higher so playing these stakes is pennies to him. Ok so onto the hand..
We’re about 2.7k effective
3 Limps to me and I open to 35 with KQo in MP
We go 4 ways to a flop of..
Flop(150) Q34ss
Checks to me and I Cbet 120
Villain on the btn raises to 320
Folds back to me. Don’t love this spot but we are getting 3 to 1 on a call and other than sets there aren’t many made hands he is repping and we can still improve to a K or Q.
He almost never has KK+ here as his 3bet percentage is very small and extremely linear. I’ve only ever seen him 3bet JJ+ and I don’t see him getting sneaky flatting a big pocket pair to my open with limpers still to act. He often calls super wide pre and plays aggressive post. He likes to see a lot of flops.
I think his most likely holdings here are all of the Axs Combos, all the 56 Combos, 34s and 33/44.
It’s important to note we are NOT holding a Spade in our hand and the Q on the board is a spade. The 3 is also a spade
Turn(790) 3
Turn is pretty much a complete brick. We check and Villain bets 700
This is where things got interesting. He’s super polarized here. I just couldn’t see him potting the turn with a full house as he would want to keep my flush draws in. AQ is possible, but we also hold a Q blocker.
With the 3 pairing the board it makes it much less likely he has 33. Since the 3 on the board is a spade it also eliminates his A3s combos, and there are only 3 combos of 44 left + 1 Combo of 33
We decide to call and play a river..
River(2190) 8h
Final board is Qs 3s 4d 3c 8h
River is complete brick and doesn’t really change anything. Flush and straight draws missed
We check and Villan Jams for my remaining 1600ish. There is a small chance he could have AQ, but it seems more likely that he would check back the river with Showdown Value instead of turning it into a bluff as he will only get called by better.
His bluff range vs value range is about 70/30 here
Keep in mind I tanked for quite awhile before I called his flop raise which weighed in my final decision. Since I made a bit of a crying call on the flop he knew I had a hand that would be tough to call 3 barrels and stack off with enabling him to put a ton of pressure on me
What do you do in this spot?
It feels so gross to stack off with Top Pair Second Kicker for 1000bb+ but given board texture and action do we just always have to call here? Did I level myself? Did I pull a Neeme?
Appreciate any input 🙂
Interesting spot, and very uncomfortable. I think your thought process is right on. The reasonable combo’s that beat you are AQ (eight combinations) the 44, 33 combinations (four total combos). Would he flat QQ on the button? I realize it’s only 1 combination, but would this also be possible?
You make a reasonable argument about why he wouldn’t have played them that way (the full house combo’s on the turn, and the AQ on the river). In particular the AQ combo’s would most likely check the river as your range is uncapped and could have AA/KK in it as well.
You indicate you have played with him a lot in the past, and I am presuming he is capable of 3 barreling a hand he realizes he has to turn into a bluff when you called the flop? You have to call off 1600 to win 3790? At this point I think you have to call.
The key decision was on the turn. You can presume at this point he is setting up a river bet for all of it, so it was either lay it down or call/call or shove over his bet. I probably would have folded and looked for better spots, but as played, in this spot calling the turn with your particular holding probably means you have to call off river bricks as well.
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