The Profitability of Pocket Pairs

[Mike Farrell]

**SCROLL DOWN FOR FULL QUESTION**
TLDR: Mike, NJ, 23yrs, .15/.30 6-Max Cash Games, Poker Stars
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ABOUT ME
Whats up everyone, I’m Mike from Jersey. I’ve been playing poker for about a year or so now casually but have finally become fed up with losing my shirt every time I sit down to play and decided I’m gonna try to take it more seriously. I usually play .15/.30 on Pokerstars for reference. I’ve recently begun writing down any questions I’ve had about strategy and figured a site like this would be the most helpful at getting them answered since I don’t have many friends that play poker seriously and all of the strategy on the web seems to be a bit above my stakes (lol). All of my questions are going to be REALLY amateur sounding. SORRY. Feel free for everyone to throw in their two cents! Cheers.
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Profitability of Pocket Pairs 22-99

To play these hands I”m either opening them or calling in position, which has me shelling out 3bbs to see a flop. I’m also C-betting on most boards when I’m the PFA.

C-Bet: My thought is that when I’m the initial raiser my hand range is weighted towards higher cards that I can rep, and 70% of flops have a 10-A in them.
(SIDE NOTE: I have a tendency of checking very wet boards when I connect AND when I wiff to protect myself from the times that I do wiff. Thoughts?)

When the board has all low cards on it (whether I’ve made a set or not) as the initial raiser I’m also C-betting because in these spots there is a good chance my opponent also missed and I can fold out their equity from a missed flop.

When I’m calling in position with these hands I’m 100% of the time set mining and only continue when I make a set or flop with some type of straight draw on a board I don’t expect my opponent to have connected with.
I.E On the button with Pocket 6s with a flop 457 rainbow HU against UTG initial raiser.

Now let’s get down to my (potentially wrong) math:

Since I only make a set on the flop 11% of the time, I’m missing 9/10 times.

SO I guess my question becomes, If we’re only making a set on 1/10 pocket pairs that I call in position with to see a flop and I’m losing 9 x 3bb for the times I wiff the flop, I need to average a profit of at least 27bb when I DO make a set for it to be profitable.

With bets between 50-75% of pot postflop heads-up, that would make the first bet 3-4bbs, and a second bet (Either turn or River) 6-9 BBS. EVEN IF MY OPPONENT CALLS 3 STREETS, the third bet is only 12-18bbs, making a total of 22-31bbs just barely breaking my necessary average threshold.

At only 100bb stacks even the most HEAVY of coolers cant keep up an average like that since you’re ONLY <4xing your necessary average when you stack someone. On top of that, the amount of times YOU cooler someone and someone coolers YOU seem to even themselves out.
So ONLY the times that my opponent connects with something like top pair and a good kicker on a very dry run out board, 2 pair, Pair+Straight/Flush draws or the off chance my opponent chases a straight/flush draw do I make any money EVEN WHEN the 10% of the time comes in when I do make the set.

Those odds have to be somewhere between 2-4% of all pocket pairs I’m dealt get a call on the flop from worse holdings, maybe 1.5-2% of the time I get 2 streets of value and <1% of the time will I be able to get all 3 streets?

The obvious solution is to play these pocket pairs in multi way pots to increase my return when I do hit them, but even still the extra 3bb from a second pre flop caller who folds the flop doesn’t turn things around. What are the chances I make a set and BOTH opponents continue with worse? Maybe close to 1% of the time?

Any math on this is very much appreciated, and if there are better strategies involved please leave some comments.

[John S]

When it comes to set-mining, there isn’t exactly one agreed upon number as to how much money should be behind. The straight odds to flop a set is about 1 in 8 (about the 11% you mentioned).

However, you have to account for more than just the odds of flopping a set. There are the times you flop a set and get nothing, the times you flop a set and only get 1 street of value, the times you get full value, and even the times you flop a set and lose (set over set, straight, flushes, etc). This is where people have a disagreement. Some say you should only be calling to set mine when the money behind is at least 10x the bet to call (if bet is 10, effective stack must be at least 100). I’ve seen people say that value should be 12x, 15x, all the way up to 20x. There are a lot of articles that talk about set mining written by pros that are out there, I would suggest reading some of them. I generally play by the 12x rule as I generally feel I can outplay most people post flop, but that’s just me.

You can (and should) vary your post-flop bet sizing. You don’t need to worry about balancing your range at low stakes and online, but different flops mean different things and should be bet differently.

Say you have 88 and you see a flop, there are 7BB in the pot. If the flop comes 842 rainbow, you really don’t need to (and can’t) bet that much. You’ve crushed the flop and there are no real draws. Here I would bet 3-3.5BB. You want to give AK a chance to catch up. If you lead out for 5 or 6BB you’re not getting called by much but an overpair. If the turn is something like a 9 or 10, you’ll want to bet low again (8-10BB) because it didn’t likely help the villain. However, if the turn is an A or K you can bet larger because that hits their range better. Here you can bet more like 12BB.

Now, same scenario. 88, 7BB in the pot. Flop comes QJ8 with 2 hearts. This flop you can bet much larger for two reason. 1, it’s draw heavy. And 2, this hits the villain much better. AK has a straight and possibly flush draw, AQ has top top. People are much more likely to hit and continue on this flop. Here you can bet more like 5-7BB. You can similarly bet 75%+ the pot on the turn whether it’s a high-card like an A or a blank like a 2.

Sometimes you make a big hand and make no money. It happens. You just have to play your pocket pairs smart and make money when you can.

[Han]

John S. Such great advice. Thank you!

[Brad Owen]

Really good topic and response. Thanks for sharing guys.

[XLTroubles]

This was some good advice!

[Author]

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