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2/5, 1.2k effective, utg limps, utg+1 makes it 25$, button calls and I decided to call from the sb seeing that the bb and utg have already prepared their chips to call as well, I have A5dd, the raiser is a good thinking player closer to a TAG with a few moves than anything else. flop is gin Q96ddd, having 2 players between me and the original raiser I decided to donk bet 50$ and my sizing is also like a probing bet, i don’t think the TAG will cbet this flop very often 5 ways but he may decide to act on my donk lead here, bb folds, utg calls and TAG makes it 175$, button folds, utg is also 1.2k deep so I don’t want to force him off the hand so I decided to call, he folded unfortunately. At this point I think the TAG has pretty much QQ, 99, KK, AA, AQ, flush. turn is 2d wich is obviously very bad for me, I was thinking about check/shoving most brick turns since I believe he puts me on a naked Ad and would bet all of his range quite big on the turn…so change of plans I decided to bet 350$ into 525$, i don’t want to give him a free river and I don’t think he would ever bet KdKx on the turn, so I put him to the test, he tanks forever and eventually folded QQ face up, i didn’t show anything but what i’m concerned about is if he calls that turn, i’m really not sure what to do if the board pairs on the river….pot would be 1225$ I got 650$ behind but would I check and give him a cheap showdown with KKdx? I know he wouldn’t bet it for value but would he turn his hand into a bluff?….i doubt it but its possible I guess….so if check/calling mainly gets me to put the money in when im beat i guess i need to bet first for value….is it insane to bet like 300-400 and fold to a shove? lol I honestly don’t know what to do
For me this is a situation of winning a medium sized pot now, or potentially losing a large one on the river.
I might 3bet the flop… hindsight is 20-20 I know. He obviously has a hand and fast playing it might be a better option.
What would he potentially call a turn bet with? KKd, JJd, QQ, 99, 66, and smaller flushes. You need to charge those draws (as you did) I think and your sizing does that. If you let him have a cheap look at the river, he will take it… Ten outs if he has a set. $350 into $525 is 2.5:1, so not quite enough for him to call with 10 outs.
Just my $0.02
To the question of what to do or a board pairing river – I think you are best leading small on the river looking for calls from worse flushes – but calling a jam.
I say this because a set is only a part of his turn calling range. There’s also other flushes and sticky TT,JJ,KK,AA.
If he has you beat on the river he’s definitely betting, I think his losing hands are probably checking behind.
So, with the early-position pre-flop raise suggesting his only set could be QQ, I think he has more worse hands that bet the river than better hands, so a call is a must.
Now you’ve got 4c worth!
Paul, I did say he could have 99 as well…I didn’t say his only set was QQ. But knowing how tight he is I really don’t think he could have 66 but I also don’t think he’s EVER shoving a worst flush on the river…so that’s why i’m reluctant about betting small AND calling a jam…
Matt, I appreciate the cents and I agree that fast playing it would usually be my default play. But as I was thinking in-game…there wasn’t a lot of turn card that would kill my action…I don’t like check raising since i’ll drive out the 2 players between me and the TAG and I don’t expect him to cbet all that often here 5 handed and I really don’t think I’ll get much action from him if I check raise…i dont think my donk lead is balanced at all but 1- i don’t think he knows that 2- i think my small sizing looked more like a block bet and 3- how balanced can we really be betting into 5 players? I don’t think there is much room to be bluffing here into a pool of players that likes to call more than anything else. There are only 8 diamonds left in the deck so I don’t see THAT many turn that are action killers? K might slow AQ but thats it…he can’t expect me to be there with a straight draw really…so what other scary turn is there…Q? Still only 15 cards that I count and the 4x K wont kill the action from all his range, just a small portion of it.
Coming to the table with my 6 cents!
Nice to meet you SeaBass!
After reading through your hand history i think I would prefer a check on the flop. It is really hard to flop a flush and even though you did it with such ease I think a good player will still C-bet this flop by trying to take it down. I would assume he would definetly be C-betting with top set.
After the 2d comes you can either check and see if he shuts down or if he continues. If he shuts down then you will have a better betting option on the river. If the player bets again you have the option to check raising to get your stack in good and not worry about awkward sizing.
Lastly, if you lead out on the turn you can lead out small to set up a pot size bet on the river. If the player decides to push on with 4 diamonds on the board he will probably do so with a smaller and bigger bet so you are at least giving yourself an option on the river if the board does pair to re-evaluate.
let me know!
This is a really interesting hand. You’re going to have so many cents after this.
First, I don’t hate calling preflop but I prefer to fold or 3-bet with a hand like A5dd. It’s a drawing hand and I just don’t think playing drawing hands out of position in the small blind is going to be profitable in the long run. It’s not that often we’re going to flop two pair or better. More often we’re just going to be in weird situations where we don’t really know where we’re at with one pair hands. Even when we make strong hands it can be tough to extract maximum value when we’re at a positional disadvantage. Given that there is an UTG limp and UTG+1 raise, I prefer to fold rather than 3-bet because the early position players are going to have too many strong hands. People love limping AA UTG. Raising UTG+1 after someone limps UTG is obviously really strong too. If the action was coming from late position then I’d like 3-betting better.
On the flop, I think your line is very interesting and I kind of like leading out. 1) Given the action and the fact that we have the Ad, I really don’t think that the UTG+1 player is going to have many bluffs in his range. He’ll mainly have flushes, overpairs, and sets. 2) Keeping the UTG player in by flatting the raise is going to be extremely difficult. From his standpoint there are two others who have shown a ton of strength. His one pair hands will almost never be good, there aren’t many two pair combinations that make sense, and you have blockers to the nut flush draw. I can’t imagine him calling with a King-high diamond draw or lower. I really don’t see him calling the UTG player’s raise after you bet/called unless he has at least a set. With the UTG+1 player likely being strong, the player UTG likely folding, and the fact that there are plenty of bad cards for us on the turn (diamonds, cards that pair the board, potentially other ones) I like re-raising quite a bit more than calling on the flop. Even if UTG+1 folds a hand like KK with no diamond, that’s not the end of the world. We’d probably only get one more bet from a good player with that holding anyway. The other issue with flatting is that we don’t give our primary opponent an opportunity to make a mistake and that’s really the goal of poker. Re-raising gives the player an opportunity to make a really big mistake.
The turn I think you have to lead since it looks so much like you had a flush or flush draw on the flop the way you played it. The opponent is going to check back almost everything, maybe even the King-high flush, and that would be a disaster for us. I like your bet sizing of $350. I think you should get calls from King-high flushes and it puts players with sets in tough spots. While UTG+1 is not getting the expressed odds that he needs to make the call profitable, which would be anything over 4:1, he actually is getting about the right price to call with implied odds factored in. The pot is $875 and there’s $650 in your stack. I don’t think you can ever fold river if it pairs, even if you don’t shove yourself, so he’s essentially getting $1525:$350 or 4.36:1. Ideally he’d want better odds than that but you forced him to make a tough decision.
If he called your turn bet then on the river if the board pairs you 100% should check to him. If he moves all in you should fold. KKd is never going to make a bluff at that pot so you are either crushed or he will check back and you will win the pot. IMO 99% of opponents will never make that bluff and realistically it is a terrible bluff as you have boats in your range and there is no certainty that the Ad would even fold.
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