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I’m utg+1 with KK, 185 effective stacks. Utg limps, I raise to 15, mp calls, sb calls. 3 ways to a flop of 10h9h2s. Wet flop, $49 in the pot, I bet 40 to drive out any draws and protct my overpair, sb calls. $129 in pot, Kh turns, bringing both straight and flush draws, sb (60 year old white guy) plays with chips and looks like he wants to bet and mini tanks then checks, (he appears to be a thinking player) sb has about $130 behind, it’s about a pot sized bet. I check back, fearing a check raise, and wait to see what develops on river and see if sb does want to bet out. 2c rivers and I make top full house, sb checks, I bet $50 for value. He calls.
My question is how much to bet on river, and do I ever bet the turn when both draws hit? I’m never sure how much to bet on river in a fairly passive game where most players limp preflop and don’t seem to call shoves or larger sized bets.I would shove the turn for value. You’re very likely to be ahead and you have significant equity against straights and flushes. The effective stack is almost exactly equal to the pot. Going all in on the turn is +EV for sure, no matter what your opponent has.
I’m assuming this is 1/2, 1/3, or 2/3 given pre flop sizing raises. Difficult to say given your only descriptor of villain is that he is a “thinking player”. But I put him on AX or QX type hand with his call preflop UTG. A premium hand maybe suited broadways, which you have blockers to. Doesn’t really matter even if he was on any straight/flush draw, you get a boat. He missed his opportunity to push you out on the turn.
Assuming he mucked bc you didn’t put his hand. But I would AT LEAST bet the turn to test the strength of his hand; raising with the expectation to fold to a reraise or shove. And if he calls shove the river esp bc you can ride the boat to Valuetown on this guy.
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