tricky river spot

[Ethan]

Notes: Big blind is a pro. Small blind is a loose passive player.

I have Queen ten on the button.
Folds around to me.
Raise preflop to 15 (very standard for game size).
small blind and big blind both call.
Flop come out 9, 6, 2. Two clubs.
Both players check,
I bet 25.
Both players call.
Turn is a queen of clubs.
Both players check.
I bet 35.
Small blind folds
Big blind calls.
River is another 9.
Big blind shoves all in for 225 instantly!
I tank fold.
And he flips over king jack of diamonds.
He had absolutely nothing.

[Hans Griese]

I’m with the pre-flop and flop play. 15 open is fine.

I’d be a little cautious on the flop, as 962 should hit their ranges better than yours. That being said your bet is fine (25 into 45)

The turn I don’t love. While the flush is scary, their ranges are pretty wide (blinds defending), so I don’t think you should be too worried about it. I think a stronger bet here is better. 35 into 120 is tiny, any hands with potential will continue. Make it more around 60-90.

River also isn’t great. If someone called with top pair on he flop, they’ve improved. That being said, there are only two other 9s out there. The big blind shoves for 225 into 190. That’s a little weird – you’ve shown aggression the whole time, and while another 9 isn’t great, I imagine you’d still be betting for value here. I don’t know how deep you are, but lets assume the 225 is effective size. If he had the flush, he’d have check-raised (or maybe donked) the turn. So I’d count that out, and really just worry about the 9. I don’t think trips is going to over-bet donk here – most low-stakes would either check-raise, or bet for value. I guess mostly I just don’t believe the story he is telling. I don’t hate a fold, but I think a call is better.

But I do the wrong thing all the time, what do others think?

[Ethan]

Thanks so much man!

[Luke]

Because the flush came in on the turn, and because you still have flushes in your range, I think the only 9x hands he can overbet shove here on the river confidently are A9 with the Ac because this way villain knows for certain you can’t have the nut flush.

A9 there’s 8 total combos, 2 combos of which have the Ac.
K9: 8 combos
Q9: 4 combos
J9: 8 combos
T9: 6 combos

By chance:
Do you remember what suit the Ten in your hand was? And do you remember what suits the 9s on the board were?

Given the small sizing on the turn and his wide range – – these 9x hands make up such a small percentage of his total range, and most of them don’t make very good overbet shoves so this leads me to believe that this river shove doesn’t make a whole lot of sense either. He also shouldn’t have sets on the flop because he usually would have check-raised those more often than not. Therefore, he shouldn’t have any full houses on the river either.

So I absolutely agree with what Hans said in that I don’t think he ever leads river with an overbet shove with any 9x, other than the two combos of Ac-9.

Whereas you most certainly have all the sets in your range on the flop, as well as flush draws that are now made hands on the turn. So the fact that you still have these holdings in your range is also another reason as to why he wouldn’t want to overbet shove really any 9x here because he’s only getting called by your flushes, and your full-houses which most certainly have him beat.

What Hans said is exactly my thoughts too in that I don’t think the fold is a bad play at all – I think it’s just fine, but a call is probably better here given the action leading up to the shove.

[Ethan]

Thanks Luke! Great insight, that was super helpful 🙂

[Author]

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