Weird River Spot vs a Pro

[Josiah]

1/3 in a 70% big stack match buy in
$550 eff
9 handed

Utg and utg 2 limp, I over limp with k9dd from LJ, CO BTN limp, SB completes, BB checks
(pot $21)7 ways to Tc9c4d, checks to the BTN who bets 10, utg 2 and I call (definitely think I can get away from this on the flop, but utg 2 is a manaic, so he doesn’t have to be ahead of me or even have a draw)
(pot $51)3 ways to Ah, checks through
(pot $51)3 ways to Kh, utg 2 checks, I bet 25 (probably too small), BTN raises to 125, utg 2 folds

The BTN is a pro, maybe the most well-known player in the area. I think his value range is JQ and KT (shouldn’t 44 and 2 pair hands almost always be betting turn?) and his bluff range 78, j8 (neither of which have to be suited since he’s on the BTN in a limped pot), missed flush and combo draws.

Am I putting him on too narrow of a range?

With the price I’m getting, I have to win half the time, do I call or fold?

[Chuck M]

You’re right, I don’t see much value hands in his range. Other than KT or QJ. Had he had aces up, I guess he’d bet the turn, sets, same thing. He might bluff a busted draw, some broadway. If he had KQ, KJ, he’s got showdown value, I guess he would’ve flat!?

I was wondering if I would’ve bet that river or gone c/c. But once we bet… yeah that may look like a block bet, thin value due to the sizing. Maybe a “scare to bluff” bet. So the pro could’ve interpreted it as weakness and raises you as a bluff…
And if he wanted a call, wouldn’t he raise you around 75-85? I dunno. Unless he thinks that you think that his raise might look bluffy because of the busted flush draw on board. But, I kind of feel that (knowing he’s a pro) he could be trying to bully you a little a take that pot from you.

And on the end, your hand strength is well disguised, so I think I would call. I’d either c/c or if I bet and get raised, because of our line and that our hand is well disguised, I think we kinda have to call. I’d rather b/c and lose than b/f here.

Oh wait, had he got QJ, he flopped and open-ender!? Then the turn woudda been the perfect card for him to bet as a semi-bluff!
That leaves KT as a value hand, pretty much it imho

[Guy Armsden]

Hello Josiah,

I think this is a hand that is lost on the pre-flop pay. I think the limp into the pot is what leads to being stuck in this position with a tough decision. I think it would be best on a raise or fold depending on table dynamics. You would have to raise a good size to get the limpers to fold too. If you got to this river point though, I would say that it would be hard for him to have a bluff here and most times that not will have a strong hand. I would look towards a fold in this position.

Cheers,
Guy

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