What bluffs and value hands make sense?

[8lincoln30]

http://mysmp.me/vh_j3O

[Luong]

Hi Lincoln,
90% 9-6
10% 9-5
Could be suited

Floating with a gutshot or calling with OESD , hit a higher pair compare to the flop still have his straight draw raised min raised the turn with intention to check back river for pot ctrl. Now hit triple 9, thinking it the best hand go for Valor bet because with his play on the turn, he probably put u on Overpair. Do he look surprised when u show him 9-10

[8lincoln30]

Tbh – i nearly folded cos i was struggling to see what value hand i cd beat. In the end i cdnt see a house or 5-6 str8 played this way. I was in all honesty accepting that i lose a gd % of the time. Everyone at table took it for a nitroll. Which it may well be. Was just posting to see if folks thought it was a fold.
When i called – he insta-mucked. Didnt wait to see my hand.

[Paul Hewson]

On the river you are getting better than 2.5:1 on a call against a player you have seen bluffing rivers already and you have trips. So those factors would definitely make a call seem reasonable.

But that wasn’t your question, was it. What bluff & value hands make sense was, so:

Value hands: 33, 77, 88, 79s, 89s, J10s, A9s-109s so that’s 20 value hands

Giving 2.5 to 1, villain should include 8 bluffs in river shove range

Bluffs: 10 8s, A10s, 1010 – well that’s 9, but they all have good removal for the value hands that they represent, making it less likey that you have them.

Of course, that’s a lot of calculations for a 1/2 table in the heat of the moment – but that’s why a lot of this stuff is good to do off the felt.

Cheers
Paul

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