What should I do on the turn?

[Kenny]

Playing 2-5NL. $1200 effective for this hand. I’m in the BB, look down at Qs10s. UTG, UTG + 1, Middle position all limp. HJ makes it 35 to go, flat call by both the button and SB. I decide to flat as well, and we can debate the merits of that another time. UTG and Middle position both follow suit, so we are going 6 ways to a flop @ 35 ($215).

Flop is QH – 10D – 5D. I make a very small lead (probably should have been higher given the wetness of the board), and slide out $50. UTG, MP both fold, original bettor flats, Button and and SB both fold. Given the surprising number of folds, when the turn completely bricks off and brings a 4c, I decide to mask my hand a little bit and give the betting action back to him with the intention of check three betting. I check, and he obliges by leading out for $115. I think for a second, put out a small 3-bet of $275. He tanks for about a minute, then slides out a raise making it $575 total. Pot has now swollen to roughly $1100 I think, and I’m about $840 behind give or take. So do I,

A) Fold
B) Call
C) Rip it in

I really don’t think that B is an option. I suppose there is some merit of calling with the intent to fold if the river should bring a diamond, as I can see him getting bully with AKdd / AQdd / AJdd / KJdd with pairs + draw or combo draw, especially given that there is little fold equity there as he’s unlikely to fold said hands if I rip it in for only $550 more give or take given the size of the pot (maybe he folds AA/KK if he overplayed them on the turn, not sure though). I just don’t like that move, tbh. There are a number of cards that are bad on the river that could give him a better hand in his possible range, I think, not just the diamonds, and letting a card roll off could potentially scare me off on the river. What if it brings another 4 or 5? There are just some bad rivers that could really alter the perception of my top 2 in this situation.

So I’m curious how people would play this turn. I get that there may have been some compounded errors or some bad decisions earlier on (flatting from the BB with my hand, only making it $50 on the flop, though that ended up not impacting anything).

this is a live game and my opponent is a regular and quality player. He’s very balanced with his hands – capable of bluffing as I have picked him off several times in the past, but also hard plays big hands for big dollars.

[Chuck M]

I think I would shove.
I think you’re most likely ahead, but villain might have a piece big enough to call off, and by pushing now, you’re right that there may be action killer cards on the river, completing either a flush or a straight, or giving him a set if he has an overpair, so you kind of avoid a tough spot / or get more value when his combo draws miss.

Just for fun, i gave him a range of sets, 2pair combos, oesd offsuit and suited in diamonds, KK, AA, AKdd and some AXdd too, and you’re about a 65-70% favorite… Even a bigger fav if he semi bluffs a single pair or gutshots

My humble opinion

(And just for a technicality, x/r the flop isn’t a check/3bet, it’s only a raise (or a 2bet) villain’s re-raise is a 3bet) 😉

[Kenny]

Awesome response. Thank you.

I did in fact shove, he snapped it off with QQ and of course I was drawing dead. Most of the time, when I get felted, I know whether or not I played poorly, took a bad beat, etc, but this one had been bugging me for a couple of days because I wasn’t sure if it was something that I should have gotten away from, if my assessment of the situation and his possible hands (sets, overpairs, combo draws) was wrong which should have led to a fold, or if I had in fact made the correct decision with the various possible scenarios and just got a bit coolered, so I wanted to put it out there. Obviously with blockers to the top two potential sets, I found each of those hands to be somewhat unlikely.

More unfortunate because not an hour before the same guy called me pre-flop and on the flop with pocket 6’s against my over pair and took me for a couple of hundred. Just wasn’t my night against that guy lol

Thanks again for the response.

[Chuck M]

Nice, my pleasure man

Unfortunate hand for sure, with only one combo of QQ and TT, those hands were indeed unlikely

[DeeKay]

I only have one additional wrinkle into the situation. I do agree with Chuck that I probably would have shoved… seems to be repping an over pair. I probably would have lost my shirt as well. Certainly wouldn’t call because you are pot committed unless you strictly put him on diamonds… in which case you should shove to max value of the pot and potential deny some equity.
So the only other thing that comes to mind is what Neeme would have asked himself. What is this guy representing with his re-raise. He must know you are strong with the check raise… what could he possibly have re-raised with? Draw would have called whether open ended or flush. My original thought would have been worried about 10’s but all the same. If you thought he was a solid player, than warning lights should have been flashing huge. But… would have been tough to let that hand go.
Final thought… when have you ever shoved with two-pair and won? : ) At a 2-5 game, usually you are facing something stronger. Again… tough spot, and you don’t want to be too conservative folding strong hands just because someone raised… but

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