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Hey everybody. AKo on the button, 3 limpers. I raise to 13, HJ and CO call. Flop Ad9c7h, I bet 30, HJ raises to 105, CO folds, I call. Turn 2s,both check. River Js, HJ bets 150, I call. HJ a 2/5 player complaining about no 2/5 game and being stuck few hundred, raised alot, but never got called. Stacks 600+. He saw me make a bad shove and river a flush few hands before. What do you put him on, and do you call or fold? Any input appreciated. Thanks.
A few thoughts…
He’s a 2-5 player so he’s going to call any raise after he limps into the pot. So clearly we are putting him on a wide range. He has to put you on the big ace with your initial raise and c-bet. Especially when he re-raises and you call. Whats quite curious is why he slowed down after posturing a big hand when a blank hits the turn. If he has a monster… the play would be to continue betting, especially if it looks like your going call with a good hand. So now I have him on a week hand. Go back to pre-flop action and there’s two real scenarios. Week ace (possibly suited), or small pair (beware of the set of 7’s). That’s what I have to think on a limp call.
The other possible option is a suited connector like 10-8 or 8-6.
So Terrifying hands that I think are possible here are 77, A7, 10-8.
Given his aggression, then checking doesn’t make sense for a made hand like 77 or A7. So I’m putting him on 10-8 or weak Ace. Given he bet again on the river, there’s no way he bets that with a weak ace… there’s no reason to when he only gets called by a better hand. He has 10-8
Finally, the pot has about 250 and he just put in a nice bet. If he believes you have something, he would bet a bit stronger than a value bet… $150 seems to be that sweet spot.
AK is tough to lay down there, particularly with a player who seems to playing loose. In the moment, I’m not entirely sure its as easy to rationalize all the potential hands like I did. I don’t hate the call, I’m not sure how foldable it is, but my read would have been 10-8. If he has anything less than A-Q, I don’t see how he could bet the river with a modest bet and not expect a call. So why bet. Of course, thats assuming the player is smart enough to also bet at that thought pattern. I like the fold, but as I said, given the information, I think you have enough likelihood that you are good to call another $150 with A-K.I rather put him as having 2 pairs or Jack pair. As you have said, he has stuck couple hundreds and raised a lot, we should assume he will be playing most of his hands and bluff a lot.
While HJ limps in PF, I would put him as a middle range hand(Ace low, high low cards, possibly suited connectors).
Let’s start with the flop, he check-raise you, what he can rep is a straight draw(which usually unlikely to reraise but he may be tilt), or any pair. The turn’s check is really good sign to know that you are leading and I would recommend you to bet him to avoid his straight draw(with >half pot size bet). While you check back, he might think that you are having weaker hands and the river give him the chance to rep the straight draw. He might also hit the river with two pairs with J9s J7s or even raising you half pot with a pair(only with his image).My thoughts on the hand:
– You can raise larger pre-flop, I’d go somewhere between $16-$20.
– Your flop sizing is too big IMO. You’re betting $30 into a pot of $44 on a rather dry texture. When you size this large, you’re folding out weaker hands that could continue to a smaller bet. When you bet this large on this texture, you are narrowing his range too much. I would bet more like $20ish on this texture.
– I like checking the turn as he doesn’t have a ton of natural bluffs check/raising this flop. He would be raising sets and two pairs for value, and hands like 10 8s, 8 6s, maybe hands like 10 9s, 9 8s, or 8 7s if he thinks he can barrel you off an A.
– River is a call after he slows down turn. Sets and two pairs barrel turn, and those pair + straight draws will probably fire river like this.My thoughts :
* raise larger preflop. 3 limpers plus blinds. Make it around 20. Can even size bigger since the tilting 2-5 villain probably will call 24 also.
* flop bet smaller. 30% of pot 44 is enough on this fairly dry board. You want all the hands that you beat to continue. Ax, 9x,7x and draws.
* flop raise from villain limits his range since 77,99 and A9 he will probably raise preflop himself. Especially since he is used to playing 2-5. So it leaves A7 and 97s for 2pair or a draw. T8,68 or even 65 and JT for the inside straight. Against this range it’s a pretty clear call. No need to reraise since you have position and villain will likely continue on the turn. If he doesn’t continue you always have the option to bet the turn.
* in my experience when villain checkraises the flop and then on a innocuous turn card checks he is ALWAYS weak. If he’s got a value hand he should continue betting since you have shown that you like your hand by calling the check raise. His 2pair or (possible) set has no reason to ‘trap’ the turn by checking and expecting you to bet. Targeting his range of draws I would bet the turn about 130ish, 50% pot.
* as played I would call the river bet 150 to win 550. 27% of the time. I’d expect for villain to bluffbet larger on the river to blow us of the hand. Our checking behind of the river indicates that we prefer to go to showdown as cheap as possible. Still 150 is an easy call
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