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There’s really not a whole lot for villain to have here on paired flops. The best draw is 9Thh and you block 9T, and depends on history with the villain on what you think he’s cold-calling a 3b OOP with.
If you plug in a range of hands he might C/RR flop of: KK-JJ, AKs, AJs, AJo, KQs, JTs, T9s, 98s, JTo, T9o, 98o which is about as wide I would go here, can probably even remove the 20 combos of offsuit hands I think, your hand is still 77% against that range, he can’t even have like AJhh here so pair plus FD are eliminated.
I don’t really mind either option here of raising all-in or flatting. When he C/R more than 3x to $300 this sizing usually would indicate he’s willing to play for stacks so jamming isn’t that bad. However as stated before we crush his range and I would think he jams most turns having so little behind so flatting and getting it in on the turn is an option as well. Your 3b jam on the flop looks and is pretty nutted so it might get some 1 pair type hands like KK QQ AJ JTs (27 combos) to fold which might have believed they were good if you flat. I think in the moment I would typically think people rarely check-raise to $300 with $450 behind and intend on folding and probably jam flop.You’re correct usually Jeff about hitting a flush draw is 4/1, it’s around 19% to hit on the next card, and many people think “Oh I hit my flush 35% of the time I can call” Of course, this 35% only applies if you’re getting to see the turn AND river, which can only be certain when your opponent is all-in, otherwise you’re making a -EV call on the flop to see the turn and then potentially face another bet. Here’s a good article that goes over it: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/odds-mistakes/
Now in this instance hero is all-in so villain will be seeing turn and river if he calls. His odds now go up from 19% to 35%. He is getting exactly 160/80 or 2:1 on a call, so his hand equity is 35% and his pod odds is 33.33%. A call is only profitable if your pot odds are greater than your hand odds (disregarding implied odds which are irrevalent in this instance, so we can see this is a slightly losing call as he’s getting slightly worse odds than his hand has.Overall I really like the hand and think it’s pretty standard. Many people will “blocker bet” their marginal hands and draws just trying to see if they’re good or get a cheap price. Raising TPTK HU isn’t always the correct play sometimes people do overplay it, however in this instance against a villain with a short stack and FD on board I like raising all-in.
Getting a pretty decent price here on the river, $200 to win $470 comes to 2.35 to 1 which means you need to win this just under 30% of the time for it to be a profitable call. I think it’d be a pretty bad move for the villain to play TT or JJ this way, assuming he doesn’t 3b those pre, however, it doesn’t mean that he never has those hands. It’s a pretty coordinated board with a flush draw as well, so he should be playing any sets more aggressively. With a T being on board, it also blocks the combos of 9T that he can have. I think we can likely rule out JT it wouldn’t really make any sense for him to play that hand this way on a 9 river especially. If you run this hand through a program like Equilab and even putting in TT and JJ, the one combo of 99 and all the combos of 89 and 9T it shows you have 38% equity against that range. Now if you’ve determined that villain can only ever have 9T, 99, TT or JJ obviously it’s a fold since you never win, however that’s a very slim 13 combos of hands. Do you have hold a diamond in your hand? The villain could also turn a missed FD into a bluff on a board pairing card. Even though the 9 isn’t a great card for your hand I would think you’re still likely putting in a small value bet on the river as stated earlier it would seem really odd for any set to just check call two streets and lead river, although not impossible, and plus you’ll also a full house here a decent amount as well as 99-JJ are all well within your range. So for all of that being said I think it’s likely a sigh call and expect to lose probably most of the time but still win enough to be profitable.
*Side note on this would be 1/2 players tend to never really bet large on the river without having it, I’ve had hands before where I’m pretty close towards the top of my range but know that this particular villian would really never bet this way without having me beat, so if you’re convinced this player only has those 13 combos here it’s a good fold. Given the player description I think it’s likely that a competent player is capable of bluffing with a missed FD or turning a hand such as 89 into a bluff. That’s all IMO.Agree with Kevin that it’s much easier to be a bankroll nit online, and there’s a wider variety of cash and especially tournaments to play online, although this can heavily depend on where you live. Typically when you’re talking about “buy-ins” for cash games you should be discussing whatever the maximum is. So at 1/2, 1/3 this is typical $300 although it varies, 2/5 is typical $1000 although that can vary. If your bankroll isn’t that large even for the lower stakes than you can consider not buying in for the max, but generally under 100bb is going to be ill-advised.
For tournaments, you would go by what your “average buy-in” is and this includes the rake, as in the total entry of the tournament not just what goes into the prize pool. A lot of people use 100 for tournaments.
You really should note the stack sizes, blinds, and stage of the tournament to really analyze this spot correctly.
The math nearly always works out to do the add-on, normally the add-on is for so many chips compared to what you start with.
In games like 1/2 1/3 larger open sizes are just more common and its not the “standard” 2.5-3.5x open. Typical opens are normally $8-$15 depending on how the table is playing. Some tables have a lot of loose action where $15 is the smallest amount you want to open, others a $15 raise will fold out nearly everything so just get a feel for how the table is playing and adjust accordingly.
Preflop: Pretty easy open on the button, like others have said I like raising more here, probably to $8 or $10, this hand isn’t a premium value hand either so simply taking down the blinds is a favorable outcome as well as playing IP and a $5 raise just won’t fold out very many hands if any.
Flop: Standard c-bet with your holding, sizing seems fine anywhere from 1/2-2/3 pot seems pretty good here. Pretty player dependent on calling the check raise I feel, he didn’t raise pre so assuming we take stronger aces out value hands consist of 33 and two pair holdings probably not AJ but even possibly J3 although pretty unlikely the small raise he’s likely going to call with a large range. On this board what does he check-raised and how does that stack up against your hand? Some players also will just flat hands as strong as AJ pre so I dont think you can rule out hands like that completely and you do want to be careful that you don’t just value town yourself against a better ace. You’re certainly going to have much better hands here with strong aces and JJ, but getting a decent price with top pair being IP isn’t a terrible play and I like your reasoning.
Turn: Easy check back, he didn’t continue betting so it’s unlikely he has a monster like two pair or a set, if you bet it’s unlikely hes going to continue with a hand worse than yours. Not really sure if he’s check raising hands like K10s on that board seems pretty thin although not impossible. Happy to see a river and use your showdown value.
River: I like the raise here and your sizing as well, he bets fairly small and as played you size giving him a decent price that he should continue with a lot of the hands that he bets river with.