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I don’t mind the check back on the turn, for pot control and in case he has AA or KK, you get out cheaper. I’m ok taking the low variance route occasionally. Also, the check on the turn might induce a call from a weak hand on the river.
I’m also ok flatting the $310. The only hand you will likely get a call from is AK specifically, maybe. Otherwise you’re crushed. NH
Large raises in 2-5 are rarely bluffs. Usually if when they bet it looks like they have it, and there is no reasonable draw they could be semi-bluffing with, they have it.
Great, detailed analysis by Patrick.
Keeping it brief: I agree with button raise, call of re-raise in position, C-bet, and fold to shove. You lost the minimum.
A nitty player with a short stack raising in ep to $25 equals fold A10 pre for me. If he was deeper, I might make a loose call. As played, yes I like jam on turn with 2 pr, nfd. Way to hit that river! 😀
As a footnote, later at the same table I stacked a guy with AA with 36 diamonds for $900. 😂😂
Cheers & Run Good!
After about 90 seconds on the turn, which is a long time for me, I found a call. He turned over K10 off for the nuts. Board paired on the river, but the Q, no J or 9 for me.
Looking back and after more time at the table, K10 off is definitely in his ep opening range. The bet on the flop is pretty standard I guess, given the wet board. From the tanker’s body language, I’m sure the bettor knew he was on a draw and he didn’t get there on the turn. His read of me may have simply been that I would call a big bet. In the end he made the right reads/bets.
Thank you Patrick and Dan. I appreciate your insight. Before the results, here were my thoughts mid-hand. The C-bet was quite large (pot sized bet). It appeared to me he was trying to protect a strong but vulnerable hand like AA or KK. Maybe QQ, but didn’t think so. The guy who tanked/called, tank/folded appeared to have a strong draw, like medium flush draw or a ten or maybe both. So if he folded a 10, that’s less likely bettor has one (straight). Also, would he shove with K10 (the nuts)? Should he have 10 8 (second nuts) in ep?
Honestly, I never considered raising the flop, but it is a line to consider.