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That’s a very interesting way of putting it . . I have to chop 5 out of 6 times to break even. And if he has as many Ks as 9s in his range, given there are two Ks and one 9 left in the deck then I’m chopping 2/3rds and losing 1/3rd . . that’s pretty much it, isn’t it. Bluffs excluded. Thanks John . . you’ve helped me to look at it in a new way which I’ll try to use in the future.
Not sure what your conclusion is then . . fold or call? But given you’d probably bomb a K or a 9 here, and so would villain, then I think you are saying it’s a fold? For example, villain could have KQ (8 combos), KJ (4 combos), KT (8 combos) . .so I’m chopping on 20 combos. But I lose to A9-89 (20 combos). So half the time I chop and half the time I lose. So 50% of the time my EV is +47 (half of the pot before his bet) and 50% of the time my EV is -248 (when I call and lose). So that’s a fold?
If I include possible missed flush draws and AJ and QT which get to the river somehow and then go for the river jam bluff (granted, you say this is unlikely), then there are 30 combos which I beat . . so now it’s 43% win (+343), 29% chop (+47) and 29% lose (-248) . . which works out as an EV of +90 (ie a call).
Regarding your 2nd scenario . . I don’t think villain can represent AK given he didn’t 3bet pre. I however have an uncapped range so I can jam AK (or not!)
