Thanks David for your in depth analysis! I will note the format for future posts.
I agree with you that I shouldn’t immediately discount his holding potential for QQ and TT, I think in a normal situation those holdings are very possible, but maybe it’s my holdings of 77 and it also being the last hand of the night, I thought if I got it in and it was set over set, not much I could do about it, I’m never folding in that spot.
As I mentioned before, there was plenty of loose action, bluffing and everyone at the table had been a calling station, and this person in particular was an action player. I do hear your point about the $125 raise, and I think you’re right, maybe to $175 would be better. In this case though, do you think he folds or the action changes if I raise to $175 instead of $125? If he’s drawing to 4 outs (2 Qs and 2 10s right?), then I’m pretty ok with that play every time. Just a bad runout I think.