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On paired flops when holding specifically AA it’s never a horrible idea to check back if in position.
If you put your opponent on a range of hands that will call bets that size, while you probably don’t include too many 9’s (T9s, A9s maybe?), you do include a lot of Kx hands and, most importantly, a lot of middle/low pocket pairs. If we believe his range is maybe 22+, A8s+, AJo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs, T9s and a few other suited connectors/gappers mixed in to fill out the range, you’re either way ahead or way behind on this flop. The most outs a person can have against you is 4 (QJ, QT, JT), and most likely they have 2 outs or even no outs.
If you check back the flop, and the turn is a blank, there’s a good chance 22-88 and TT will bet trying to protect against a hand like AQ/AJ. Even if they then check, they’re still likely to call a bet on the turn when they might have just folded to a flop bet. You also get the added benefit of keeping the pot from getting bloated. Most likely if you check back, a person with a 9 is going to bet, and you can just call two bets instead of getting stacked.
In short, K99 isn’t the kind of board you want to be getting 200+ bigs in with AA on, you’re usually behind if all the money goes in. This is, however, the kind of board you can build a strategy for that both maximizes your value against a weak opponents range and protects you from getting stacked against their strongest hands.
You need to raise more pre, yes, but not because you want to limit the field or whatever. You want to be able to raise in this spot with really bad hands as a bluff and actually get folds. With 6 limpers and you the pot is $14 before you raise. In spots like this you need to look at raising 1.5-3x the pot with a super polarized range. QQ is on one end of the polarization, so making it $23-$40 would be the range I’d look for.
Betting $20 into $36 is awfully small on the flop, but given your preflop size I think it’s fine. Also recognize that this flop is probably better for a pre-flop limp/call range than a BB raise range. People limp/call with a lot of middle/weak broadway hands (JT, QJ, KJ, KTs, KQs, ATs) and you’re likely only raising with pocket pairs and big Aces (AK/AQ).
The turn card you need to recognize as a bad turn card for your range (if not your hand). When a board runs out this good for your opponents range you’re obliged to check. Your hand actually does really well as a check-call here since you’re blocking so many straights.
I’d say in this spot on the turn you just need to go into check-call mode. He’s likely to bet small with such a strong hand against what looks like over cards or a single pair, and you also induce value bets from weaker hands (AJ, AT, KJ), bluffs from hands like AQ, and merge bets from QJ, QT, Q9, J8, T8, 98, etc.
You got the money in as a 70/30 favorite (there abouts). Don’t be results oriented when you get it in good and get sucked out on. You played it fine.
Hand 1:
I don’t like your preflop line. KJo isn’t really good enough to call from this position, even to a min-raise. I like 3-betting with it a heck of a lot more than calling. Off suit broadway hands in multiway pots are big time losers unless you have the initiative. Kind of a pre-flop semi-bluff. Even if you’re behind, you usually have outs (and more importantly, position), and often times you just take it down preflop.You need to raise the turn in this spot to get some value. You’re usually ahead, and there’s no reason not to try and build a pot.
River should be just a call, even though it feels super nitty.
Hand 2:
Set over set for less than 100 bigs is trivial. Never feel bad going broke in spots like this; you’re supposed to go broke.As played I think you’re folding the river. An argument can be made for raising the flop to get it in if possible, but I don’t mind calling the flop against bad opponents when there’s such an obvious draw on the flop to try and get it in on the turn when you’re a bigger favorite.
Since not everyone can view SMP, the starting stack size is $275, grinder has him covered.
Pre-flop:
Nothing to say here. I dislike large raises preflop but most people aren’t comfortable playing 5 and 6 way pots and no one folds for $7 at $1/$2.Flop:
This bet is polarizing and range-capping. You never make this bet with, say, TT or 99. This “pro” is able to know this and puts you now on either a middle pocket-pair trying to protect your equity, an over-pair or unimproved over-cards looking to take it down with a big c-bet. He’s very likely to call here with 100% of his preflop calling range. Don’t be too quick to assign a range to good opponents who are in position against you.Turn:
This is a good card for you, mostly in that it’s not a good card for your opponents range. Since your range as an EP raiser is ahead of your opponents range as a late position caller, anything that doesn’t help him is good for you. Your bet is a bit on the smallish side, and from a strictly GTO perspective I’d say you should be betting bigger. A bigger bet narrows your opponents range more, and decreases the stack-to-pot ratio (SPR), making river decisions easier. You’re near the top of you range (only KK and AA are better since you’d not bet sets so hard on the flop), so you should be looking to pile money in. You also are now beating the occasional T9.His call isn’t that concerning, really. Given how small your bet is (giving him nearly 3-1 express odds), and perhaps sensing that you’re a bit gun-shy, he still might call pretty wide. I’d range him as all open-enders, all top pairs, a few gut shots (KJ/KQ specifically) and a few random air hands where he thinks he could take it down on the river.
River:
“I figured a check would induce a large bet, so I bet…”Think about what you’re saying. This is exactly what you want in this situation. You dodged all the Aces and Kings in the deck, the river didn’t pair the top or second cards, and you’re blocking most straight possibilities. What’s more, this LOOKS like a scary card, meaning your opponent will be inclined to turn his hand into a bluff.
You instead make a blocker bet, which is something you shouldn’t be doing against any decent player because it looks like exactly what it is. Maybe you got bluffed, maybe you didn’t. No one can know for sure, but I’d be wiling to bet he raises you here with any hand that makes it to the river, rather he has you beat or not.
You should check this river card against this opponent. Against weaker opponents your bet is actually good, but not as a blocker bet; betting for thin value. You’ll be amazed how many times you’ll get called by QJ, KJ, AT, JT, J9 on these rivers when you bet small like that. It’s how you make your money in small stakes games.
I think you just out thought yourself here. It feels to me like you’re playing on scared money, which is a good way to lose. Make sure you can actually afford to lose what you’re playing with, and can afford multiple re-buys if you do lose a hand like this, and you’ll take the fear of being stacked out of the equation.
