[Luke]

Because the flush came in on the turn, and because you still have flushes in your range, I think the only 9x hands he can overbet shove here on the river confidently are A9 with the Ac because this way villain knows for certain you can’t have the nut flush.

A9 there’s 8 total combos, 2 combos of which have the Ac.
K9: 8 combos
Q9: 4 combos
J9: 8 combos
T9: 6 combos

By chance:
Do you remember what suit the Ten in your hand was? And do you remember what suits the 9s on the board were?

Given the small sizing on the turn and his wide range – – these 9x hands make up such a small percentage of his total range, and most of them don’t make very good overbet shoves so this leads me to believe that this river shove doesn’t make a whole lot of sense either. He also shouldn’t have sets on the flop because he usually would have check-raised those more often than not. Therefore, he shouldn’t have any full houses on the river either.

So I absolutely agree with what Hans said in that I don’t think he ever leads river with an overbet shove with any 9x, other than the two combos of Ac-9.

Whereas you most certainly have all the sets in your range on the flop, as well as flush draws that are now made hands on the turn. So the fact that you still have these holdings in your range is also another reason as to why he wouldn’t want to overbet shove really any 9x here because he’s only getting called by your flushes, and your full-houses which most certainly have him beat.

What Hans said is exactly my thoughts too in that I don’t think the fold is a bad play at all – I think it’s just fine, but a call is probably better here given the action leading up to the shove.

[Luke]

Thanks much guys!

[Luke]

Hey Joseph, I initially have pretty much the same thoughts as you on this hand. Only thing is I’m not sure he’s too polarized on River using such a small bet sizing: $35 into a pot of $135 is about a 1/4 PSB. You only need to be correct here about 17% of the time so I agree with obviously calling here. I think had he made it a full pot-sized-bet, or larger he would be more polarized.

I like check-calling as you did on the River now that you have some showdown value with a pair of Tens, that coupled with the price being so cheap, I don’t think you can fold here unless you have some sort of live read.

On second thought, though, (and it seems like you have played with this person, B, before so you would know better than I would) his small sizing here on the river I may look at it as he’s screaming for a call, and he was directly targeting any two-pair and single pair holdings in your range. Also, if he is betting some busted flush draws here, which I know I would, I think he would typically want to bet larger in order to not offer you such a good price on a call. Unless he’s thinking on a level where he is deliberately disguising his bluffs as a value bet, I’m thinking since he bet so small here he’s more value heavy in this spot than anything. Another question to ask is: would he be calling your $20 flop bet and your $30 turn bet with any single pair 9x, 7x, or 4x hands (hands that you beat)? Probably not, so I think that really only leaves busted flush draws for hands that you beat.

[Author]

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