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I think this was a rather weak way to play AA – the 3bet is just too small to deny EV for UTG / UTG+1, which gives him a difficult time once the flop hits. Also the 1/4 pot sized bet gives EV for almost any hand to call, doing this on a board where only a set may have outflopped him is just plain bad poker.
On the other hand playing 99 can only be justified by the reads you had, as with a villain range of JJ+, AQ+ that flops leaves you to a 7 to 3 dog, with 2 outs and almost no draws to make a bluff on if he actually has a hand.
Even if the read would have been correct and he had air, villain has to be a solid player to lay down two suited overs on a dry board like this.
Stabbing the turn also seems to be out of line – the only hands benefiting from the paired board would not be flatted on flop, so from villains point of view it is an obvious steal attempt / value bet with a lower pocket.
The river call is dubious, as he leads out and already called a turn raise on a non-draw board – most people do not tend to do that with air, and anything he may have has you beat.With no reads I would have folded the hand on river – with your reads I may have hammered him on flop with a re-raise to 75$ and see a cheap showdown from there.
I’d say that just calling is not an option here, as there are only seven outs you can blast on this board safely – AKJ non-c, so you need the fold EV to make this play profitable.
You will not be able to rep AQ on the river, as on a draw heavy board like this, that’s a defend re-raise on turn.
If a T-9-8 comes, you cannot rep setting pocket mid pairs, since those would have been overpairs on flop, a reraise rather than flat calling. You could be re-raising preflop with A9s non-c ofc, but you would not walk yourself through two barrels with 4 outs.
Anything lower than that either pairs the board or completes a straight draw – the worst possible way for this hand to go.
As an addition to that, flat calling two streets and then making a play on a dry river is just begging for a hero call, should villain put you on a missed nutflush.I think this is a solid play in a live game if you don’t have a maniac table image – I’m baffled on the villain river play though, but we’ll get to that later.
To see if this could be played better, let’s narrow down the limp range from lo-jack for a reg: low suited connectors, AQK-rag suited, a few mid-suited gap connectors and low pockets. The most scary hand on this board is A-5c, but that’s a clear raise in my opinion, so we can chalk that off. AKQ-rag suited are easily dominated by your raise range, so they should be a limp-fold, which leaves us with low and mid suited connectors and pockets. Unfortunate enough, this flop is a gold mine for those hands: any low connector would make a pair and/or a gutshot straight draw, mid connectors would make open ended/gutshot straights, and any pocket makes a set or gutshot. Combined with the flush draw, there is a lot of EV here – and for villains specific hand, the raise was just not enough large to deny the EV – even if he did put you on AQ. Of course making a larger raise than that puts you into a vulnerable position for a shove if he flopped a set, so I’d go easy on that with air. 🙂
And now to the river play: villain hits the flush and checks the river – wut? The only hand you may have here that dominates him is AQc – but that would have been a re-raise on the flop to pick up some fold EV. I would have made a small value bet that would either get me payed off for the draw, or just mask the hand.
