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Thanks for the feedback Chuck. I definitely think my bankroll situation could have weighed in on my decision. At the point of this hand I was already down $500 on my trip and feared going down $600, as that’s just a big hit to my bankroll.
I like a flop fold b/c there are so few clean outs for you. Even if you hit one of your 3 outs to the nuts you have to fade a club on the river. The fact that the utg almost raised indicates a made hand or giving though to a semi-bluff with clubs, so you can safely assume one of your opponents as at least top pair and the other has at least a flush draw. Turn is admittedly one of the best cards in the deck for you and you’re not in this amazing spot. You just have about even odds to call, so with implied odds you’re doing pretty good but not fantastic. IDK, I could be wrong just my thoughts.
Why would you ever be 100% sure that you have her beat? Her line suggests quads are in her range, a hand like 76 suited or something. The fact that she bet out the flop indicates right then and there trips are in her range. The check on the turn actually corroborates that, as a lot of players make odd players when they have absolute monster hands like quads, they want to play deceptive even if betting may be the better option. So I’d be a little cautious at this point. The check back is fine imo. When this player bets out the river when the 9 comes, player clearly has no bluffs almost always, so they’re either betting a 9 and you’re chopping (which they’ll most likely never fold if you reraise), or they have a 7 and you beat, OR as you mentioned, maybe a hand like 1010 or jj. But hands like 1010 and jj10, are probably going to be a little scared themselves of betting on a board like 99777, as all you need is a 9 and they’re crushed. If you think their only 7s are 75, 76, and 78 suited, there are still 3 combos of that compared to 18 of qq, jj or 1010.. however, it just doesn’t seem too likely they’d play those hands like this. And they’d never ever reraise you on the river with a hand like that, makes no sense. So honestly, I really don’t mind just calling the river, because it’s so hard to imagine they’d call you with anything worse than at least a chop, and you avoid this horrible spots you wound up in .
I like it. Imagine if he has a hand like QQ. He’s never calling 3 streets. Probably wouldn’t call the turn. However, he might actually call a small river bet with this hand who knows. If he checks the river you can bet, or call as you did. Also, you avoid getting stacked or put in a really though spot if he check raises the turn. KK makes the most sense. NH
I think this is a really interesting discussion and interested in hearing others thoughts. I had a similar situation to this one. This hand happened, a long time ago, but the important parts are I raised to like 12 with AK in a 1/2 game, and got one caller in the bb. Flop is A66, he checks I check back the flop, turn he bets $50, so twice the pot. River he fires $100 and I think about it for a while and fold.
This was kind of a loose wild player who had been drinking. I thought about this hand a lot after the fact. Did he bet so big on the turn and river to make up for lost value with a huge hand? Or did my flop check make him think I was weak and so it induced a bluff from him that ultimately got through. When players do these 2-4x overbets on scary boards, are they doing it to make up for lost value with a monster, or are they just attacking weakness to take down the pot?
Like I mentioned, basically you’re only repping 22 exactly so I think he could very well go for it with an ace high flush, which is why I’d call. People definitely have a tendency to share the hands that are bad beats, but it could have turned out he had an ace high flush, but you’re probably not sharing that one huh
Yeah I think a lot of this comes down to how good you think he is. If he’s a better player you can think about folding because he probably wouldn’t reraise with anything less than a full house, but a more rec player may go with their ace high flush full force.
My suggestion is to fold the turn. What bluffs does he have? Meanwhile, he has a lot of hands he might do this with. QK, Q8, maybe 78. Even if he did it with sets and two pairs, like j9, jj, 1010, you’d still lose to all that too. I can’t think of one hand he does this with that you beat, except maybe a poorly played AJ, but that doesn’t happen enough to justify calling.
It’s much more likely that he’d raise a 9 here than a K. So even though he checks the turn, I would proceed with caution. Sometimes players just take weird lines, look it worked out for him. So, you should take advantage of his questionable turn check and check back, b/c your only mission as the other guy said should be to get to show down, or to bluff catch potentially. Checking the turn gives yourself a chance to bluff catch the river. The only reason you should ever bet the turn is if there are draws you don’t want to catch up, and there are no draws here to be very concerned with.
This is a tough one guys in my opinion. I think it comes down to if he’s ever re-shoving with a nut flush, and I think a lot of players are capable of doing that especially at this level. It’s almost impossible to put you on a full house unless you have 22 exactly because it seems ridiculous to be checking back a full house on the turn when you’d want to build the pot for value. If he can discern any of this, he just may just love his nut flush enough to risk the rest of his stack on it. Also I think you have to raise the river for value.
He can reasonably have AQ, with the ace of clubs, that’s 3 combos
He could have A8 with the 8 of clubs that’s 2 combos, maybe give him 1 that decided not to raise on flop.
He can have all 8 combos of suited aces. So that’s 12 combos you can beat that might shove the river reasonably.Besides, you have to raise the river because he could have a few king high flushes he might call with in addition to the ace high.
Hands that beat you, well q8, 86, 66, 88. That’s only 15 combos. But also, a portion of the 86 he will check raise the flop, as well as q8 maybe, so you’re looking at even less. I think he has enough ace high flushes you have to call river.
Hey Dave, I think this might be an outlook thing you need to fix going forward. Sounds like when you see a bad card for your, you’re initial judgement is that you must be beat, probably because of past experiences where bad cards meant defeat for you. However, going forward I would think about how your opponent might know that’s a bad card for you, and be good enough to represent it, and then you can take advantage of that. Also, think about ranges in spots like that. Think like ‘would my opponent reasonably call here with flush draws’ if so, and they missed, their only chances of winning is to rep a card it seems unlikely for you to have. take care.
I don’t know man, this isn’t going to be the most thoughtful analysis, but I’ll try. First of all, your hand reminds me of a hand I just recently posted in this forum called ‘I lost $200 just like that.’ Basically it’s a spot where you’re getting good odds and based on the play it seems like your opponent has one specific hand most of the time, but it’s also possible he might have a couple other hands that could make some sense albeit not as much sense. I like to break things down by combos, so it seems to me like he definitely has all 3 sets on the flop, and I would add top two for sure, plus 78s, q8 and kq. That’s his range pretty much no bluffs here. So that’s 22 combos you beat, and 12 you lose to and maybe like 9 max you chop with, but he might not limp every q8 so maybe 6. Ok fine, let’s go from there. The $55 bet on the turn is starting to polarize him a little bit more, not so much in the sense that he can’t have all those combos still, but it’s starting to feel like he’s really strong here, so the truth of how strong will come out on the river. Now the river shove I think is the street where you get the most information. Especially with him being out of position for the hand, when you call his big turn bet that should definitely instill some fear in him with a lot of his weaker holdings. Pretty much everything but KQ and maybe Q8. With that said, if you give him 6 combos of q8 that you chop with, you get $75 every time you make the call, but you lose $150 all 12 times he has KQ which he plays just like this every time. It all comes down to how often he does this with jj, 1010, 99. If it’s at least 6 combos you should call. So like, 2/3 of the time he has 99-jj he plays it just like this. If so, call. The problem is, isn’t jj-99 afraid of a straight themselves by the river?? Also, this is player dependent. If it’s a tight older player, they’re more likely to be. Or, they’ll still bet the river, but bet like $50 to let themselves get away from the straight. Close call, I think it might a fold but can’t blame you for calling.
Thanks man, I appreciate the feedback. My main concern when I take a pretty big loss in a session isn’t so much losing the money, what gets to me is the possibility of playing the hand in a less than optimal fashion. The reason being is that one is variance, and that will work itself out, and the other is potential leaks, and that will have a long term negative impact on my bankroll. When I take a hit like this, I try to get back as much value as possible by analyzing the hand for potential leaks or mistakes, so I never make the same mistake again. It’s a good learning experience for me, and I don’t feel too bad about how I played it. Probably just like you said, my river play was a little questionable! Even though 57 seemed unlikely, it was the only thing that really fit the story. Oh well, we’ll get em next time.
When you say ‘deer in the headlights’ you mean staring someone down? Also, I’m not sure it’s fair to say I looked nervous necessarily. I definitely felt nervous, but I’m probably thinking that’s easier to pick up on that it actually is. I think it’s somewhat natural to think if you’re feeling an intense emotion, other people are going to notice it even if your body language is identical to what it was before. I think it’s a failure to separate what you’re feeling from what other people know. In the moment I’m pretty stoic.
Thanks for the analysis. Some really good points. In retrospect I prefer check calling the turn instead of my raise, for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. At the time I guess I just kind of felt like I was beat, and I could represent the straight very well when the 8 comes. Better to do it with a hand with no showdown value like you mentioned though. I guess I also do prefer following through on my bet, as I think I’ve told a great story that I have at least a straight if I bet on the river and he finds a lot of folds, however played as is he can bet all his value including sets on the river instead of folding them perhaps. Also, I could have sworn I shared the link to the hand with SharemyPair but I guess I forgot. http://www.sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/30081
I guess I used 6 and 7 a little bit interchangeably and I apologize for that. They’re essentially the same thing in my end. But the video with sharemypair should have it right!
Flat with Jacks sometimes and sometimes raise. 70/30 flat to raise ratio could be ok! It could be player dependent too. If the player who is raising is raising a lot and willing to call light OP or 4 bet light, you’d prefer raising with JJ and getting it in. If they’re a tight player who doesn’t raise a lot err on the side of flatting.
