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Hello Ethan,
I think you played the hand well until the river. You have to put him in a range of hands that he can keep check calling with on the flop and turn that would also lead him to check the river. The can easily have two pair combos here and flush draws that may pick up equity on the turn that were stated above by John. I would have checked back the turn and reevalutaed on the river to see what he did. Most of the time when a player check calls they have a marginal hand that may be trying to catch up with and when you bet the river it allows all his two pair and back door flushed hands to now raise you. I think if he checks the river you can safely bet but when he check calls the turn alarm bells would be going off for me. I prefer to check back the river and get to show down as he has played the hand very strangely. Now that he has raised you it’s hard to fold here with the price you’re getting but you are right that he is almost never bluffing.Good luck at the tables!
RyanHi Jonas,
I think the sizing pre is a bit to large, I’d be more inclined to make it 2.5 to 3x pre. However, if you’re using this sizing everytime you raise then I guess it could be fine, just as long as you’re being consistent. On the flop is where I think the mistake is made and I would have played it differently. Since you’re out of position I would prefer to check here and see what happens behind you. On this board 898 rainbow you can evaluate where you’re at if you know the action that is going on behind you. If you have a bet and a raise/jam you can let your KK go and move on to the next hand as you’re most likely neve ahead here. Their ranges all include an 8x or even pocket 9s in them so it’s hard to see your KK being in the lead at this point, especially at 25NL.
The way you played thought by leading out, and getting flat called then raised also tells you a story that your KK is not ahead becuase their perceived ranges have all the 8x, 99, JT, 7T type hands. I would feel like that if they had TT+ here you know about it preflop as at these stakes very few players are not going to 3bet pre with hands as good as TT+. However, if they do flat, then their hands also include TT and JJ which you crush. I would be more willing to play this range if we were heads up but since you had a flat and a jam, you are far behind. Also, if you cbet and then flat the raise you’re leaving yourself open to getting jammed on which is what happened and now you’re in a bad spot. If you think your KK is good you may as well jam it in anyway instead of flatting, otherwise, what are you flatting for if you think your hand is winning and what are you setting up to do on the turn? Just some food for thought and good luck at the tables!Ryan
