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i’m no expert and mostly seems about right to go down as played..but, if we’re going to drill down to see if there’s something to learn, then it seems to be the chk back on the turn. i guess we have to really think about what hands would get chkd to you? out of all those, are more or/less ahead of you? of those behind you, how many do you want to deny equity to and how many do you want to get value from? if there is value to be had, is it worth going for when one of them has a better 7 and/or the nuts. I don’t think either player will have 77,55,57 based on the play up to your turn decision (I guess once in a great while SB flopped the nuts and is just hoping MP keeps the betting lead on the turn; but based on how you saw him play for straight forward value prior it doesn’t seem likely). So only better 7s (none of which can be flush draws) and that means only ONE of the players can be ahead of you and the other a draw or give-up…or both on draw/give-up. seems like there are a lot of hands you want to deny and value and only a small number of hands that have you beat. Realistically, how many J7,Q7,K7,A7 does MP even limp pre with? and how many of those raise the flop bet? seems like not many at all. How many of those does SB limp with? probably only the suited ones and not all of them? more likely connected 7s which you are head of all (except 75 which doesn’t usually chk the turn so is probably out)…and you’re not dead to any of those better 7s either…AND i bet you have some fold equity against some of the better 7s with a bet on the turn as well…I mean how would you feel if you were the SB with J7s and you got raised on the flop and bet into on the turn? So, it looks like probably a bet is better on the turn? But is it better with only 1:1 SPR? what size doesn’t give the correct odds for a draw to call? what size will a worse 7 call? Can we get Polk in here to tell us what to do??? side note, how about a river Tc one time!! lol. Excellent hand post. This is how we get better, by going over and over this shit. 🙂
p.s. what flush draw did MP have? only FD or str8 draw too?
the one thing I would add, and maybe you already thought of this, is that sometimes your read on a player is that they are super strong is correct, but they are over-valuing their hand. So their mannerism and even betting (size,line,physical,etc) is that of someone who is sure they have the best hand…but they aren’t necessarily the kind of player to have put a huge amount of thought on what YOU may have in that spot. that being said, I think it was a good fold. you only beat some of her 5x, chop 66, any pairs over 6’s all would have probably been afraid of the turn 5 and less likely to bet then shove. You win here occasionally, but I think way more you lose….although ppl do crazy shit at 1/2 so who knows! lol…good fold good fold.
the key here is that he started with the talk BEFORE he hit his set. The talk started when he was actually afraid of AA KK…basic reading player tells would say any ‘strength’ he is trying to give off by his chatting/question asking shows he his weak/scared. It obviously gets more complicated after that…but also on a basic level: he check called (while chatting) when he was weak/scared and open shipped (while chatting) when he had the nuts…my experience at 1/3 is that chk/call then lead is not usually a bluff. Although I don’t disagree with you that he ‘should’ check that turn when he has JJ…again, when do 1/3 players do what you would do? that’s why you beat that little game up until you can move up and make better money!! 🙂
Hey Chris from 2 years ago, it’s me, I mean you…us from the present. Congrats on beating the 2/3 game for a sustained period and moving up to 3/5. You’ll be happy to know that it continues to be a profitable venture.
Notes on this hand:
1. I’m mostly surprised at how not terrible you are…as I was clicking the play button I was sure I was about to be completely horrified at your play…but not really!
2. ok, squeezing A5 off from the small blind against like 20 limpers is a bit adventurous but hey, sometimes you just have to punish that game so I’m still cool with it
3. yes, bet bigger on the turn
4. hell yes bet this river – he doesn’t call probably with that exact hand but if he has a one pair A you are getting paid for sure.
5. if the river is a 6, no way is he betting his 2p…the 2/3 players are always afraid of the better hand on the river.
Cheers!!Yep. You are on a draw with no fold equity. 5:1 implied odds to call and hit. 30% of the time you get there. Easy peasy
Oops! How did that happen? Well, he has to bet 100% of his hands at some point since you exposed. The question is, which hands would he jam the flop with? He also will not be expecting you to bet if he checks to you. How fast did he jam? I think I have to call, all things considered. Probably a coin toss.
Also you only have 187 invested and its 2:1 on the 450. Seems like a fold is best…but folding is no fun
Tough one. I play 2/3 a lot. See this play by ppl with top pair good kicker all the time. Don’t think he jams a set much. Def Q9 might play it this way too. Or other 2p maybe. My decision would be based on player. You may have him but he def thinks he has the best hand…he doesn’t think he is bluffing.
this is problem(?) I have with the 1/3 games as well. it’s very hard to get your opponent to fold top pair. you have to triple barrel and only if the river bet is at least pot size and they have that much or more behind….even then only some will fold. Obviously the flip side is when you flop top/top or 2p plus or hit your draw you almost always get paid off. I’m no expert on how to manage this situation into a +EV strategy but I’m trying very hard to get there. good luck!
the kid is definitely all over the place – as in, a bit of a scatterbrain. i don’t recall him ever saying that he’s ‘crushing it’. i think he actually knows how to play well but his ability to remember details isn’t very good…and his delivery is almost unwatchable. anything’s possible but i don’t get the feeling he is just making stuff up. verdict: either way, mostly unwatchable.
