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Hi Paul, interesting spot you got here.
First off, just wanna address preflop play: Can you talk about why you flatted preflop? It seems like a standard 3bet spot with such a strong hand in AKo, especially given that you are a LAG and can get value from tons of worse hands. Now you are going to a 5 way flop out of position with AKo, which seems like a pretty crappy spot.
As played, I think a fold on the flop is warranted given that he just c-bet into 4 people. Forget the fact that he has overpairs, sets, etc. in his range: that board is awful for AK and while it doesn’t necessarily hammer anyone’s range, it is certainly better for all 3 players behind than yours, and any of them could either have a monster, or put in a squeeze against two LAGs here.
Once you call, you spike a pretty awesome turn card. When he bets the same size, in general this seems like a blocker bet, just kinda a scare card for his range (overpairs), since you heavily block strong aces. He may also choose to do this with sets, hoping the ace hit you, but it shouldn’t too often, given you are far more likely to have jacks and other pocket pairs in your range, or specifically AJ or maybe A7. Especially in 1/2, I am more geared to believe this is less a value bet than a scared bet that doesn’t really know what to do when a scare card comes.
So let’s talk about your raise: I am assuming this is a raise for value, because your hand is pretty damn strong. If it is, let’s consider what hands villain can call with. Well, you are a LAG and have history, so I hope you make this raise believing you can get value from A9, AT, AQ, and even QQ and KK, because if not this raise doesn’t make much sense. If we throw in every combo draw that makes a little bit of sense, like KdQd, KdTd, QdTd, 8d9d, 9dTd, and 8d6d, we have a fair amount of worse hands that can call. Now the better hands that will continue: 77, JJ, 44 if he can open with it, AJ, and A7s, as a generous opening range. I count about 32 worse combos that can call (in a perfect scenario) and 15 better hands that can call (opening his range up). These will all depend on your assumptions about how he plays against you, but I think these are a little too ambitious to warrant a raise here. Is villain really going to stack off with QQ or KK here? Once you raise, you are threatening almost the entire effective stack, remember that. Also, does he really have all of those combo draws in his range? This would also assume that all those worse hands also elected to bet the turn, which also seems a bit unlikely. You are basically counting on getting your whole stack in against this guy in a multiway pot with one pair that was opened UTG and he double barreled with. Too many things have to go your way, and for all these reasons, I’m not a fan of the raise, and would like to see a call here and keep your range a bit wider, and probably evaluate the river.
But we got here, and now villain pretty quickly rips it in against you. Now you said this took only 30 seconds: for that reason, I’m going to heavily discount QQ and KK here, that would have a really tough decision to make. I’m probably also going to discount most of the worse value hands that he has unless your image is so unbelievably awful he is just gonna stack off with AT immediately here. For combo draws, KdQd makes a bit of sense, but only if he is so crazy that he can bet into 4 players with overs and a back door flush draw. Same for the other draws.
Sets might call some of the time and let you hang yourself on the river, but could also look to get it in here on a semi-wet board. Two pair would definitely play like this a lot of the time.
The bottom line is this: I think you are beat a lot of the time, and in a vacuum, I don’t think this call makes much sense. HOWEVER, you raised for value, so it seems if you were trying to get it in on the turn here, you are supposed to stack off, or this is just a bit of a disaster. I think this can be avoided if you 3-bet preflop, or fold the flop, or just call the turn. Once you raise the turn, this puts you in a bit of an awful spot.
Hi Heath,
I’m more of a cash game player so someone who plays more tournaments should definitely weigh in here as well, but here’s my take…
You said blinds were due to go up to 200/400 so I’m assuming they were at 150/300 when this hand happened, giving you 20 BB’s. If there were 4 total calls, and the small and big blinds, then there should be about 1650 in the pot already. In a cash game, I would size anywhere from 3-5x + an additional blind for every caller. In a tournament spot, you can size down a little because the value of chips are greater, but at the same time you also need a size that isn’t likely to go 4+ ways to the flop. I think 1300 is too small here, and I would likely size to around 1800 or more. I think you got a bit lucky only 2 players called, but I think 1800 will often get it heads up far more often, and it is just under 1/3 of your stack so it doesn’t immediately commit you to the pot if the flop sucks. At 1300, you are offering basically 3:1 on a call for the first caller, and better for everyone else. Also, there’s a small chance the raise to 1800 will let someone try and limp raise if they don’t think you are committed. But QQ won’t feel so great super multiway on a short stack, so I would look to size up to at least 1800 here.
I think it’s also perfectly fine to make it 2000+ and just try and get it in preflop. You aren’t dominating any hands that may call except AQ and KQ, so winning preflop and not putting your tournament life at risk is a perfectly fine result here.
On the flop, I like your jam. I think most kings will have to call here, and I guess a couple draws as well (at least in this case). I’d love to hear if others in the forum would prefer a more normal sized bet here on the flop, because you are committed either way, but in general I like the jam.
First hand: I’m with John S, i think the call preflop is too loose… I would end up folding the flop, and here’s why: I don’t study ICM implications, but I am pretty sure that they are too great to call here. John is right, you are about 2:1 with your draw, but if you are up against a set, your equity goes down a bit, and I think vs. 2 pair vs. top pair is the best outcome, in which John says you have 31% equity. This early in the tournament, at 140BBs, tripling up doesn’t have enough value to risk your tournament life, when you will bust out 2/3’s of the time (or more). If you are on a 30BB stack, it’s different, but this deep, there is no reason to risk your tournament life when you bust so often.
Second hand: first of all, that is an absolutely absurd limp 3-bet from UTG with 33. I would guess more often than not his range is JJ+ and AK. I think generally you’re gonna want to fold preflop to that range, but given that he has 33 there, who am I to say? On the flop, you played it fine. You flopped as good as you possibly can and are never folding in that spot. Even against AA, i believe you are a favorite and have to call. It’s just ludicrous he showed up with 33 there.
Honestly, I disagree with Patrick a bit…
The HJ can open a wide enough range most of the time that I think a flat is ok here. If it was UTG or UTG+1, it has to be a 3b, but I think we’re strong enough to flat here preflop. Don’t get me wrong, I think a 3b is probably the best play in the long run, but in a 1-2 game with position, I much prefer a flat to a preflop, assuming we have skill, range, position advantages.
Now, again, this will depend on the game itself…when we call in the CO, if we expect to bring in 2 more callers, then it is a different story, but I think a fairly large chunk of the time, a 5x open will generally get us heads up or at the worst 3 ways (usually the button, whose range we smash anyway). I’d love to know from Steve if this was a game where there were tons of multiway flops, in which case a 3b is warranted for sure.
I also need to know the flop itself. Once the button overcalls the flop, his range is super heavily weighted towards flush draws, which come in on the turn. I dont know the board so i dont know what straight draws were out there. With that in mind, I would probably end up folding the river, if it were me. The guy who leads into 2 players, when the board pairs and the front door flush gets there, should have you crushed most of the time, unless he is a total maniac. And if he doesnt, the button should have you beat as well, because he will generally have a flush, or some 2 pair (in 1-2, I am assuming a lot of players won’t raise the turn with even weak flushes). What other draws can the button have.
For you to be able to call and win on the river, the HJ has to have total air for the most part, or a ridiculously overplayed QJ, QT type hand (in which case our call preflop is definitely OK), or the Ad (not many combos of those), AND the button needs to have a draw that somehow didn’t get there and that he decided to call 2 streets with even after the flush got there.
This seems like such a rare occurrence to me, I think you should be folding the river here.
Hi Alex,
Nice hand. Here are my thoughts:
QTo is probably not an open in a 1-2,1-3 game. I assume you are playing 1-3, because the sizing to 18 makes a lot more sense for a 1-3 game. I would probably open QTs, but QTo is often dominated by hands that will call such as KQ, AQ, AT. If you are opening as a bluff or isolation raise against the limpers, I would choose hands that aren’t as likely to be dominated, like 98s. You don’t want to find out later that they limped QJ or KT and called your raise. Also, the limpers appear to be stations and will get sticky post flop. Anyways, as played I think your line is fine, my only gripe is the flop sizing:
You made it 18, and you went 4 ways to a flop, and with the blinds its a $75 pot. Even though that’s a super dry flop, in any 4 way pot you want to size up a bit, especially with such a vulnerable hand. Any J, K, A is a pretty crappy turn card or river card, and most other cards will bring in some gut shot draws, and sizing up will better knock out any weird draws or random floats. I would go for maybe 42-50, and force the limpers to accept a really bad price to draw. If you get check raised, you will be in a shitty spot either way, but that’s also the problem with opening QT and hitting top pair in a 4 way flop: it sucks. For the same reason you led the river because the card was good for you, you also need to remember that this flop is HORRIBLE for a standard opening range.
On the turn, I like the call, but also don’t be so sure you are behind. He bet 35 into a pot of (60+75), which is pretty tiny. Though he can absolutely have overpairs (and sets), he might also choose to float from time to time with AQ, AJs, maybe even 99 and 88 from time to time, etc. when you bet so small on the flop. If you have him on only overpairs, then the call doesn’t make a ton of sense because you are drawing pretty thin. Though they are definitely possible, they aren’t his entire range.
Finally, I really like the river lead and the sizing. It forces him to fold out a lot of his value range (he folded KK after all), and sets a price for you to bet fold if he has a set and raises. Every once in a while AJ+ might call, but otherwise you avoid having to make a really crappy check-call decision if he bets the river, and allows you to win against some of his better hands. Well thought out.
Let me know what you think about my comments: on preflop, flop sizing, and then the range of hands you put him on on the turn
I guess I’m just not convinced I get paid off if I check call and then shove the river. If I check, he likely bets his ace a lot of the time for protection (or value if he has two pair or better), and then I think it has to be check fold. If I bet I can at least set my price and get paid off more often on the river or just shut down the river when I don’t improve
Hi John,
Thanks very much for the input. I see what you’re saying about the turn, but then what line do you prefer there? Check-fold, check-call, check-raise?
