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Matt, I appreciate the cents and I agree that fast playing it would usually be my default play. But as I was thinking in-game…there wasn’t a lot of turn card that would kill my action…I don’t like check raising since i’ll drive out the 2 players between me and the TAG and I don’t expect him to cbet all that often here 5 handed and I really don’t think I’ll get much action from him if I check raise…i dont think my donk lead is balanced at all but 1- i don’t think he knows that 2- i think my small sizing looked more like a block bet and 3- how balanced can we really be betting into 5 players? I don’t think there is much room to be bluffing here into a pool of players that likes to call more than anything else. There are only 8 diamonds left in the deck so I don’t see THAT many turn that are action killers? K might slow AQ but thats it…he can’t expect me to be there with a straight draw really…so what other scary turn is there…Q? Still only 15 cards that I count and the 4x K wont kill the action from all his range, just a small portion of it.
Paul, I did say he could have 99 as well…I didn’t say his only set was QQ. But knowing how tight he is I really don’t think he could have 66 but I also don’t think he’s EVER shoving a worst flush on the river…so that’s why i’m reluctant about betting small AND calling a jam…
Well with a little bit of a tell in-game I can easily take out all 10x and 55 out of his range, he is clearly block betting the whole way, I was a bit worried on the flop since he may defend Q2dd from the bb and get a decent flop, but on the turn he was clearly trying to get to showdown for cheap and since I didn’t expect him to have AQ I was pretty sure that I was good in this spot. So with the assumption that I only lose to AQ, chop with KQ and win against any other Q, I decided to go for a very small and very thin value raise on the river against an amateur that I thought could call just for curiosity even if he is sure he is beat.
I agree with Saul. I don’t really like calling here in this pot multiway where so many turns could be action killer OR kill our hand lol. I also think the raise is a little bit small and that you may get yourself in tough spot if you get called and the flush hits and he shoves on you….pot would be roughly 380 and you got 330$ left in your stack…a bit akward to fold at this point. I really do like the creativity of limping this hand from CO to induce button and get yourself a very nice squeeze play opportunity if it comes around back to you, koodo!
I’m fine with raising this hand preflop, once you get 3bet it’s a bit more dicey given that we are shortstack, out of position and not with too great of a hand, once button calls we’re getting better odds but it’s also harder to win it against 2 players…I don’t hate the call but I think folding and taking a walk to regroup, reload and come back to the table ready is a good idea too! Obv, on the flop we’re not going anywhere, The only question is, being so short, should we check/raise all-in or just bet ourselves? Maybe open-shoving this flop will look weaker, depends of the player type but maybe betting 100$ could have some fold equity against AQ-AT that we wouldn’t mind for sure. I just would hate to get the flop check through or let the 3bettor cbet ATo and be commited to call our shove and win if we bricked turn and river. Food for thoughts
1- You would be 4betting yourself, not 3betting and personally, i really don’t think it’s a winning proposition….if utg+1 is super loose and aggressive I could understand why but since live players are usually pretty strong when 3 betting, i could even consider folding offsuited ones.
2- YES! you should show him the bluff for sure to tilt him even more. Once he loses his mind he will lose his money….just gotta be lucky enough for him to lose it to you. Once you show him the bluff, try not to leave the table for restrooms, take a walk or a break, since it shouldn’t be long before he loses his stack.
3- I would probably like your bluff more if you were to bet the turn. It would put ALL of his hands in a tough spot and if vilain isn’t really good at hand reading I don’t think it matters much that you don’t have many 4’s in your range from utg.
4- As played you can’t have 98s…how the hell would you have called that cbet? lol
You pretty much nailed what I was thinking about…I wasn’t turning my hand into a bluff and I know i’m gonna be beat most of the time I’m getting called BUT I didn’t know how else to protect my hand and equity…if I just call i’m gonna be in a very tough spot on the turn everytime an A-K-Q or diamond hits, but also 7-8-9-10 could be bad more as well…so I didn’t like calling and giving him the chance to check behind every turn so that he can improve for free or give him a great opportunity to bluff me as well…Thanks for you thoughts
I think SOME of the times I will get called by JJ-77 that may consider hero-calling. And even if they never call that bet, there is value in not showing my hand and implied value because they will be annoyed by folding and they won’t do it all the time…meaning if I do this move over and over again, it will get called more often over time because of people fed up by you.