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If I’m correct you’re betting 45 into 148 on the river. Given the image of the SB you described, calling really light and all, I think this is way to cheap, he is always going to call with a better 8 for instance, or even a lucky 9. You got lucky here, I think he just folded a missdraw like AT or something. So given the profile I would have sized it up here, between 80 and a hundred !
Hi Matt !
One thing that you should maybe include in your hand story : do you cover Villain ?
I do like the call when he 4bets you, but only because he is UTG+1 and reps strong. Only you are able to know the dynamics at the table, the kind of player he was, etc..
Whether you had him covered or not, going all in here with anything else than Aces or Kings should not be done in my opinion, because you are way too deep and if you get called, it will be by AA or KK (mayyyybe QQ)Flop is no good, sad story ! So is the turn. To me this is a no brainer, yes. Sometimes you really don’t hit, and the board is too dangerous to continue.
Also remember that having AK blocks AA, KK, but also AK as well. The thing is that he has a piece of it 95% of the time here (5% left being when he has QQ), and therefore it is too likely that he has one of them suited in spades, since you don’t.Just a bad flop, you’ll find better spots. But this bad runnout shouldn’t make you question your 3bet preflop, I think it was good to narrow his range and value all his weaker hands.
Hi YogaMadison and thank you for taking the time to answer !
Actually what I meant by giving a shot is that at a good table I would never have played this hand. Here I didn’t raise because I just knew it would have been spewing money, they just DON’T fold xD
So I think it is more profitable to pay one BB when your hand has some potential, and exploit it later.I agree with you on the fact that he probably had a piece of it on the flop. I am behind, so I guess you would have just called on the turn ?
Also what do you think about the river ?
I hope you were facing a flopped set. Because maybe, maybe he could have had a big pocket pair, put you on an Ax hand that didn’t hit the flop, and thought he was ahead then jammed consequently. I think I would have had folded too. He didn’t react seeing your hand ?
To answer your topic and what have been said before, I don’t think the two guys on your left would be bluffing on this flop. Absolutely no draws, it’s early in the hand, you’re behind a lot of others, and any Ten. Of course you’re behind pocket 3s but this is a marginal hand here, you mainly have to think about JJs, or good Tx to call you preflop with (starting from T7s, T8s but you block it, T9s and more…).
So watching the replayer action by action I was already going for a fold after the first jam. Too bad you put an extra 235$ in the pot, but you’ll get it back quickly I’m sure ! 🙂
Hey Noam !
Super tough spot here, I almost feel sorry for you. Reaaaally hard to say, I think your analysis of the hand is quite good and complete, the only two solutions are your opponent is bluffing with AsXx or the king or the queen, or he really has it…
I’d say then it’s all about what you feel in the player in front of you. Even though it’s always painful to do that, I think letting it go is kind of the “best” decision here. The fact that he called such a sizable bet on the turn despite your super strong range makes me think that he could only do that with two spades.
I wish you better rivers in the future !
Hi Alex !
I’m gonna try to give you my opinions as clearly as I can ^^
First of all, I don’t think your raise pre-flop was too loose. Judging by what you wrote before, and after in the hand, you were likely facing unexperienced players. If you don’t raise enough, you’re gonna have to play multiways pots, we do not like that ^^ So of course it is more expansive, but those raises are definitely needed according to me.
The cards were on your side in this hand, nice river ! That doesn’t mean “lucky river” though aha. You c-bet trying to represent the Ace, the button doesn’t have it and folds. The BB calls, and the BB can have a looot of combos. Maybe an Ace, but he can definitely have a 5 if he / she is the type of player who likes to defend the big blind.
Knowing that, yep you could have thought a little bit more before calling on the river, though I understand your relief hitting the nut flush xD. Difficult to know if he has a boat or not, since you’re leading the action. But to my mind, if he had it, he would have let you bet a third time on the river, to be sure to take all the money. Maybe I’m wrong, but it just seems like he had a 5, or tried some kind of weird bluff, with no real story told…And finally to address the players staring at you like “he’s been so damn lucky”, well, it seems like what I said at the beginning was right, they may be slightly unexperienced. Your first c-bet is a bluff since you totally miss the flop, but then you bet your draws and I don’t see anything wrong with that. Maybe you should try to play with’em more often aha. Cheers !
Hi Matt !
First of all great hand and very nice pot there, congrats !
(there’s a small mistake in your title btw, you flopped a straight, a set would have made this a lot more easier lol)Honestly I think it was really unlikely that your opponent had KK or QQ. Pocket 9s was a scarier hand in my opinion. And the reason is : when you check raise the flop, you show a loooot of strength, with probably a made hand type KK, KQ, KQ or 99s and sometimes, AJss or ATss, in semi-bluff.
Showing this much strength, I think your opponent would have directly jammed here (or re-raised) if he had set of Kings / Queens on the flop : “there’s a flush draw and I don’t wanna see a spade, my opponent seems to like his hand so he’ll probably call..” and other reasons. To me there is no point in trapping when the other guy check raises, you just go ahead if you have such a great hand.
So the only combo I fear is pocket 9s, and then it’s all about your feelings : does he have them or not ^^ Once again congrats on your hand, hope to see more answers on this interesting topic !
Hi there !
Hard to answer your question, but I think we can easily the “terrible play” option.
What came quickly to my mind was the fact that there might have been some angle shooting from the UTG player. If he did not do it voluntarily, well maybe you should have 3-bet without going all-in (especially knowing that he wanted to raise), so you could have seen what the situation was.Also, I think you do not need to shove in order to get the dead money. Play your hand quite normally, the results will be the same.
Good luck ! 🙂
