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Reload and don’t leave the table until he does. Take note that you can’t bluff him and instead take him to value town. Even a 2 street hand like TP2K is now a 3 street hand against him. Yes, you will run into better hands, but if you’re properly rolled for the game just get in there and ride the variance.
As for the hand, I like your raise but I might have gone up a little against a button straddle and two callers; $30-35 seems right (3×$5+$10 for the callers+$5-$10 for being UTG).
On the flop I like the jam. Against his hand you have 15 outs (any ◇ + any K or T) twice, making you a slight favorite on the flop. You got it in good.
Check out Red Chip Poker’s Fold Equity Calculator. This hand is profitable even if he never folds 5-3.
John – I have to disagree with you; neither one of these villains is folding JJ or QQ because they’ll often assume you have AK. I’ve seen someone call a 4 bet jam with pocket 2’s because they thought they were up against AK.
Chuck – Whether you 4 bet smallish ($60-75) or jam, with the effective stack sizes, they’re either going with their hand or they’re not. You can’t do much about it; just be happy you got 3 bet and cold called instead of everyone folding. Variance – free money is a beautiful thing.
Edit to add: Think about the range of hands you would have raised here: would you be happy if you 4 bet AK and got folds? What about 88 or 9Ts?
The limp/RR is certainly not a standard line for me but the dynamics that he created made me try it.
The range I assigned him pre – flop was 22-QQ, all Broadway cards, suited Aces and most suited connectors and some suited one-gappers. I felt he would have 4-bet KK+ as he had built a very aggressive image and wasn’t afraid to use it for max value. So basically he was left with hands that needed to improve.
I believed his “I’ll get it in…” speech as I had seen him get it in with bottom pair, weak kicker, no draw a few times. On this flop with him shoving, I’m ranging him on QQ, TT, 99, and all Broadway’s that connected (tptk, pair+draw, two pair, the joint) and maybe a couple spazz hands. I’m never folding because my hand at worst has 35%. At this price it’s slightly profitable to call even if he showed me QT. I agree on sizing up though. On a flop with only one over I’d probably have to station him. It’s my favorite play against a LAG/ maniac even though it is swingy.
It looks like the villain had AK here and wouldn’t have put anymore money in unless he hit on the river (that’s 6/46 cards so only 13% of the cards). I’d much rather bet this turn and get some value from his AA, KK and AQ. If he’s truly a rock then you aren’t getting a bluff from him on the river so you probably got close to the max.
In the future you should put more info about the villain and yourself in the OP. If you’ve been playing LAG he might 3 bet a little wider to your button open. Try to include any relevant info for analysis.
I’d 3 Bet a little larger to $75 pre. The flop I’d like 2/3 pot so $100. I’d be looking to check the turn or river with one pair and I’d rather bet the turn if I’m in position (I assume you are but you don’t explicitly state it), and check the river. Bet ~$150 on the turn.
River is a check and then you don’t have to stack off. He isn’t check-raising you with KK, QQ, JJ or 99 (hands you beat).
Basically, don’t stack off with one pair for 300 big blinds.
Brad – Do you think that the second nuts is less valuable in a single – raised pot when it’s made with one card? If I made the second nuts with both hole cards I’m absolutely betting it/ probably felting. In this case I can get behind a bet/fold OTR but I would need to be against a real fish or have history with the villain where I look “bluffy.”
Was this heads up or were there other people in the hand? What was the pot size on each street? These things matter a lot when analyzing a hand. Also you said “raises” on the flop and turn, does that mean “bets” or did someone else bet and he raised?
Anyway, with AJo I would have 3 bet this to $45-50 heads up (add one increment of $15 for each caller) with the intention of taking it down preflop. If this was AJs I can get behind a call OTB because I don’t mind trying to over-flush someone or hit two pair in a multiway pot.
As played I probably would have checked the river… there’s a four liner straight and you’re chopping or losing if called.
