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12/31/2018 at 11:39 pm #3547Cher ScarlettParticipant
Yea, some people just have money to throw out the window, I guess. :/ I have a decent poker bankroll, but that $1000 definitely stings. I’m hoping to one day be able to devote more time to maybe quitting my job and getting into commentating, but that did NOT make me feel confident in the future lol
12/31/2018 at 10:44 pm #3544Cher ScarlettParticipantThanks John! It just hurts cuz it was my first time investing $1000 in a tournament (I’ve been playing for 13 years!!) and I was really hoping to get to the final table. Hopefully next time I get unlucky in a less precarious situation.
12/31/2018 at 10:26 pm #3537Cher ScarlettParticipantHey Dennis! The interesting thing here is that your hand was slightly better than his pre-flop and your hand’s strength increased on the flop. I think the main issue here is that you didn’t get enough information to figure what he did have, and had he had what you did put him on, he wouldn’t have played the hand the way he did. Here’s my thoughts, sorry it’s so lengthy:
I don’t particularly mind defending of the BB here, since everyone else folded, but given that you weren’t short stacked, I wouldn’t have played this hand. That being said, I think a re-raise here would have given you both a stronger position knowing you would be acting first, and a better read on what he was holding if he calls or re-raises, or even a fold from him, which I think when you’ve got 83dd getting the blinds and pre-flop bets is a pretty good aim. You don’t have to play every hand. There’s certainly better BB hands to play than this one. 🙂
But, we’ve decided to play this hand, so let’s see what really happened here.
I like the check on the flop. Letting him continue to be the aggressor is wise. You’ve not really given any information away at this point, so your range is huge at this point. Even though you’re first to act, you’re at a bit of an advantage here.
If we consider that he 1-bet pre-flop, sure, we’re looking at possibly a K with a low kicker, but you’ve only got an 8d high, so it’s entirely possible that he’s the one with the nut flush draw, 96dd and 97dd are easily in his range here, and plenty of hands in his range are a straight draw. Fewer of his hands are worse than yours here with his pre-flop raise. I think best case scenario here with the information at hand is that he has 23xx or a face card with a low kicker with one or neither of those being diamonds.
When you compare the best case scenario with the whole range, you really don’t have enough information to think your hand can win this pot. You should be looking at his hand equity being greater than yours, mainly because you don’t block anything that would be the best hand at this point and his range is wider than yours, regardless of what you’ve represented. Our only option at this point is to tell a better story than the one we’ve got and to be consistent with it.
Our villain responds to your check with the minimum bet here. You should be very suspicious that he’s fishing for information and that his hand is no better than yours. His bet doesn’t give any information away about what he has other than the fact that he wants to know what you have. This pretty much eliminates that he has two pair or a set on the board. It likely also eliminates that he has a K. If he’s got a K here, he doesn’t want to see the turn or the river. Why would you give your opponent a 30-50% chance to a win? The only reasons he’d be okay with seeing another card here are if he’s basically certain he’s going to win and value betting, or if his hand improves with more cards.
Your raise here is simply too low for this wet of a board and his stack size. Unfortunately the only thing it really does is tell him is that you don’t realize he’s on a draw, and that you probably don’t have a K because you think he does.
He calls here because for him, worst case scenario is that you have pocket Ks, and another 50k on 30% odds with his stack size is fantastic equity. He’s not calling your bluff, he’s investing in catching his draw. A shove here is the only way he’s going to fold, because you’re asking if he’s willing to stake his entire tournament life on a draw vs a very strong hand. If you’re trying to give yourself the least amount of risk to catch your flush, I’d simply call here.
Here comes the turn. It’s an 8s. This is the worst you can hope for. You didn’t catch your diamond, and leaves a wide open space for connectors to make a straight, which are definitely in his range.
At this point, the only way out of this is checking. If for some reason you still think he has a pair of Kings, your odds of catching your diamond have only gotten worse, meanwhile, your story from the flop of a set or two pair may have gotten worse. K8 is surely in his range if you’re thinking he was representing a K, so you’d have to commit to representing a set, which would absolutely start with a check, just like it did on the flop. Best outcome here is that he’s put you on 54 and he value bets into you. This is definitely a possibility given that from his perspective, you’ve already completely missed that he was drawing to a straight, and if that’s still the case, he’s simply following the same thing he did in the flop, and can get some more chips out of you for cheap. Your small bet into him broke your flop story. When the 8 turned, you changed the way you were playing.
If I’m villain, I know you don’t have a K from the flop action, and now I don’t think you have any 5s or 4s either. I think you have 88 or diamonds because you’re either value betting because you think I have KX and you’ve won with 3 of a kind, or you’re trying to get to the river. Even though this might not be how you play, it’s certainly how villain played on the flop, so this is exactly what I’m thinking here if I’m in his position. I’m not going to give you another card unless you’re willing to stake your tournament life on it, because more or less, you’ve told me exactly what your hand is, and you clearly have no idea what mine is.
I think the biggest mistake you made here was putting villain on the K, and wearing blinders to all the signs that he was drawing to a straight.
🍒
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
12/31/2018 at 5:21 pm #3529Cher ScarlettParticipantHe wouldn’t have bet on the turn, for sure. I do think I should have respected the flush draw and checked to him there, and I’m not sure he would have shoved me all-in, because I never really represented I had a straight draw. My bet was not necessarily insignificant, but I don’t think I ever gave myself the opportunity to test what he was putting me on. Then if I do make the call there, it’s not so damaging as ending my tournament life there.
The other thought I had was since he limped in, testing his hand strength pre-flop. My stack was high enough that I could have represented a better hand in my position then, and then bet at the flop since he would surely call 3bb raise with AQdd. Had I invested the 900 chips earlier in the hand, I could have put him on what was certainly a much better hand than mine before I put myself in a position to hit a straight.
My main issue, I think, was attempting to gather information on the turn when I had a draw to a hand I’d likely not be able to get away from. I put him on hitting a pair (not the K) or even hitting two pair (again, not the K) because he called the 900, and not at all that he had put me on TT 66 99 69 T6 or T9 and was willing to invest 900 on AA AQ or any diamond.
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
- This reply was modified 5 years, 11 months ago by Cher Scarlett.
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