The first thing you said in your video when he makes the small turn bet is: “It was a really strange line.”
Prior to the turn you said in the video: “He played basically any two cards, so he could have anything.”
Obviously we both have this knowledge with hindsight…If he’s got a boat, then why is he raising so huge on the turn? That is definitely a strange line…That said, on the river he would be out of position (I think you were button straddle?)… Not really sure what this means as far as how the bets would play out (if he opens on River or checks to you). Anyway, he’s a rec player! He could have a boat but why would he lead out on the turn?!
I don’t know if I could make that fold, but given your experience in 2-5 with 3-bet turns your fold is probably high-EV against regs. Rec-players… Well. It is a 4.5x 3-bet but it is a solid bet to look like a bluff. You used the ‘big bet must be bluff’ logic for another hand, so wouldn’t this apply here, especially vs. a rec player?
Here’s the other side: Could he be making this play with KQ? or QJ?
One more: Am I even saying anything worthwhile?
Thanks for the content, Brad!