Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
To the question of what to do or a board pairing river – I think you are best leading small on the river looking for calls from worse flushes – but calling a jam.
I say this because a set is only a part of his turn calling range. There’s also other flushes and sticky TT,JJ,KK,AA.
If he has you beat on the river he’s definitely betting, I think his losing hands are probably checking behind.
So, with the early-position pre-flop raise suggesting his only set could be QQ, I think he has more worse hands that bet the river than better hands, so a call is a must.
Now you’ve got 4c worth!
Nice post, Joe. Those responses have a lot I agree with as well.
Pre-flop, I agree that if you are playing at a loose table ( straddles suggest this), I would raise more to thin the field. I don’t agree with the talk of set mining with tens. I think they are strong enough to play on their own strength – ideally against 1 or 2 opponents.
Your attitude to play on the flop really struck me. I understand the check here, being out of position against 3 players who all paid to see the flop. But this range really connects with your raising range a lot harder than it does with their calling range. Plus you have backdoor flush and straight outs. So 10s could be in your cbet bluff range, while weak aces and kings might check.
But you checked. Your comment of calling the flop bet with the intention of folding if the turn is not a 10 is where you start burning money i think. You are getting 3:1 with a plan to fold to 95% off turns. On some of those 5% that you make your set your opponent makes broadway. So i think you would get a lot of value by working through the range if hands you might have here and once you put 10s into a calling range determine what non 10 turn cards you continue with. Any club adds a flush draw, any j or q adds a gutshot, any k for a scare card to an Ace. If you can figure out a better range when calling I think you will get better value when you do call here. If you can’t figure a wider calling range then I think you should check fold on this flop, because long term you’ll be losing money here.
That’s my feedback. Congrats on the double up. And thanks for sharing your hand. Cheers Paul
My first thought is, why are you shoving?
With a hand as strong as AK I would be looking to build a pot and get as much money in as possible pre-flop from those hands that you have good equity against. Shoving 200BB is going to see all worse hands fold and better hands calling, which is not going to be winning over the long term.
I can’t recall where I read it, but good advice I read was- if you want to induce a fold your cards don’t really matter. So with strong cards we should be looking for action, not chasing it away.
I’d like to hear how the action went that got you all in. Was it just a single all in bet? Or a bet, raise, shove? Could you give an update with some more details?
Cheers
PaulMr New Orleans, I believe every person in this forum is trying to walk a line between obsession and addiction – so perhaps that’s the reason for Scott’s post.
I have one suggestion for you.
Record every (and I mean all of them) hand you play in your next session and arrange for a poker coach you respect to review your play. If you can get independent and respected advice, that’s where you’ll find some meaningful guidance at long running success.
All the best with your play and endeavours
Paul
Hi Gill,
I agree with Guy. A raise from you in the cut-off will often be a squeeze to take down all the limps so a re-squeeze from SB with a range including weak suited aces and medium suited connectors as well as JJ+ is reasonable to expect.
Given that:
– your hand was much stronger than it could have been;
– his re-squeeze range will have some less than stellar holdings
– and you have less than a pot-sized bet after making the callI would look to 4-bet shove pre-flop 100% of the time here.
Also, I don’t think it’s ever worth calling with less than a pot-sized bet behind pre-flop, always shove and get the fold equity.
As for the actual hand AQs vs AA with less than 100BB effective stacks, if you’re folding this your being way too tight – it was just a cooler.
Cheers
PaulI’m in agreement with MrViceGuy.
I like the call pre-flop. As the sb reraise indicates a lot of strength and 9s are an okay hand I’m looking to evaluate each street and not over-play my hand. The odd raise size suggests sb is possibly an under agressive rec player – and any raise is likely legit.
Flop having one over and facing a small bet i don’t see any value in anything other than a call.
Pairing the board on the turn puts you way ahead or way behind with one card to come. With this in mind i disagree with your bet. If you put v on AK – which i don’t think is wise (leave him on a range that makes sense, not a specific hand), then he only has 6 outs to improve, so there’s no need to deny equity. I think that bet just bloats the pot above the strength of your hand.
Once v bets the river and you are getting 3.5:1 on a call, you need to decide if he is bluffing often enough to call. After calling the turn and the preflop strength i can justify a fold, but i don’t hate a call either.
I think the big problem was with your turn bet. As I don’t know what worse hands call it or what better hands fold to it. I’d like to know what your thoughts were at the time.
Cheers
PaulI think the major consideration here, when deciding whether to fold, call or raise, is your stack to pot ratio if you call. Playing 100bb effective, calling a 15bb raise will give you an SPR of 2.8:1.
With the majority of flops seeing you
– out of position,
– checking to the raiser,
– facing a c-bet of probably 20bb (your SPR is now 1.7:1)and you will be put to a fold or shove decision on the flop.
I think that alone makes these hands, with low raw equity unplayable to most 3 bets, if we assume they represent real strength.
Against a loose aggressive player, I would look to add one of them into my 4bet shove range. But I just don’t ever see calling be profitable with the SPR and poor position you’ll be left with.
So most of the time I think these are folds.
I’m keen to hear if you agree or disagree.
Cheers
PaulIs the question one of ranges? As in what range of hands does he play this way that call your bet and lose or fold to the bet but are better.
I can’t think of any of the better hands that would fold getting 5.5:1 on a call, so given that you are only getting 1:1 on a call (if you just called your getting 4:1 on your call), the question is are there as many weaker hands that call as there are value hands that beat yours in his range.
a: What better hands call?
b: What weaker hands call?
a: Given v didn’t re-raise we can take out AQ+ & 10s. So, 3s, Q10, A10+, 109s, 108s is 55 value hands that could play this way.
b: QJ,Q9,Q8 are losing hands that will probably call. So that’s 12 losing calling hands.
So given you only get even money on a call when you win, and you lose about 5:1 when called, I think you definitely bet way too thin for value with the river raise.
Always interested to hear if you agree or disagree and why.
Cheers
PaulOn the river you are getting better than 2.5:1 on a call against a player you have seen bluffing rivers already and you have trips. So those factors would definitely make a call seem reasonable.
But that wasn’t your question, was it. What bluff & value hands make sense was, so:
Value hands: 33, 77, 88, 79s, 89s, J10s, A9s-109s so that’s 20 value hands
Giving 2.5 to 1, villain should include 8 bluffs in river shove range
Bluffs: 10 8s, A10s, 1010 – well that’s 9, but they all have good removal for the value hands that they represent, making it less likey that you have them.
Of course, that’s a lot of calculations for a 1/2 table in the heat of the moment – but that’s why a lot of this stuff is good to do off the felt.
Cheers
PaulHi David.
Run bad sucks.
I like to use sklansky earnings to get me through the bad beats (look it up and you’ll see what I mean).
Also, take a good look at the times of run-bad and examine how you played the hands to see if you could have reduced the chances of losing. This can include a lot of variables such as:
– Raise\bet sizing – a lot of players undercut the raw equity value of their cards (i.e. AA are great without any help, A10 not so much) by making very small bets and offering their opponents a very cheap price to improve on them.
– Conversely, many players go to the other extreme – shoving pre-flop with kings to avoid a bad beat by Ax.You want your bets to offer your opponents a price into the pot that they will accept but which doesn’t give them a great price to try to make their hands. Unfortunately, getting calls means that sometimes your opponent will out draw you and you’ll lose. But if you don’t give them a chance to win you won’t make any money at all (except the blinds). So take some time to watch some videos or read some books on bet-sizing and offering odds on the pot – then you’ll understand the give and take of the game. But none of us actually LIKE the ‘take’.
Another consideration is considering how the community cards would hit the range of hands your opponents might have, and being able to adjust the value you put on your own cards accordingly.
Most importantly though I think is to only play for stakes that you are comfortable withy and at which losses won’t affect your ability to enjoy the other parts of your life.
Cheers
PaulHi Guy. Without knowing more about the table – is 9x your/the standard raise size? has the button been 3-betting a lot in position? There’s a lot more detail we could be getting here.
Anyhoo, I think taking the pre-flop action of bet then 3-bet at face value (is that fair for your opponent? is there a 3-bet bluff range in him?) you’re getting told your up against 10+ or AQS+, if you call the 40 into 80 OOP you have to realllly smash the flop to what to proceed – how often is that happening?
With the large bets already made leaving you an spr of 5 on the flop, I don’t think your getting a good enough price to call, especially with the reverse equity situation you’d be in if you improve to top pair on the flop.
However, you did make the call and smashed the flop. Not only that but it was a flop that a check-raise could easily represent a strong drawing hand (flush/straight/pr+ draws). So If you put him on a big hand I think the shove is more likely to be read as a drawing hand it will likely get a call from all your opponents range but AK. So the shove seems profitable to me.
If opponent has 3-bet bluff range then this flop could also hit him with the same potential draws, so getting offered 2.2:1 on a call you’ll get plenty of calls from those so a shove seems profitable there as well.
I just think a way more valuable question you should ask is what you’ll do when you don’t smash the flop and face a c-bet. That’s another interesting conversation.
Cheers
PaulHi ya, Jeremiah.
So, LJ calls your raise pre-flop, so probably fair that we can rule out JJ+ AQ+ as these would be re-raised. So LJ range is: Ax, broadways, suited connectors and low/mid pairs.
Button raises, so super-loose player in position raises. Can we give him a range of 88+, A10+, J9s+?
So highly likely you are ahead of both LJ and B pre-flop, so we can rule out folding.
If you flat, you are offering LJ 4.5:1 to call and your facing 2 players from out of position with less than a pot-sized bet behind, with a hand that won’t like the flop 1/2 the time. From my thinking jamming
to force the LJ out, and either take down the pot or get heads up with the loose button range would be the most profitable line.I really like your analysis of your hand, very well considered.
I would prefer a bet fold here. First because there are several hands in Vs range that you beat and would call a river bet, but would check behind if given the option. Second, by leading out you set the price you are prepared to pay (folding to a raise), so you save yourself the cost of higher check call.
First hand: I think with the straddle on giving an effective stack of 75bb that 78s is too weak a hand to continue with after the 3bet. He’s hardly ever getting the flop with anything other than a draw and as Andrew points out then the stack to pot makes it unlikely to get a good price for draws.
Second hand: Is there a 5bet bluff in his range? I haven’t seen it on his vlogs. So if not, I think he should shove all-in, everyone assumes he’s super strong and if they want to play their AA or AKs then good luck to them.
No comment on your play. as I reckon everyone else has that covered. But congrats on the big win.
I know it can be hard playing 2/3, seeing everyone throwing money around with junk and waiting patiently for the goods to get involved. So good on you for not getting sucked into playing too wide a range.