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Been grinding lately trying to get better and it never feels like i am getting anywhere. was recently in a tournament, ante 200 blinds are 1K 2K, i have around 70k in chips, villian(BTN) has 80k where i wake up with The one and only pocket rockets utg+2 so i raise to 2700 get called by the btn and bb going 3 ways to a flop which is 2d 8d 10d….pot is around 10K and i figure my AA is still probably the best hand and if not im drawing very likely to the best hand since i have the Ace of Diamonds so i figured since were a little deep and the btn has been betting a lot of flops id set a trap.. He bets 8k, bb folds i jam all in and get snapped called of by QQ no diamond.. turn comes a 5s so only 1 card will win him this hand and it comes on the river a damn Queen of spades……. looked it up cause i was so in shock turns out he only had a 2.27% of hitting that card……… cant get this out of my head any advice?
Yes… I do have advice. You got cold decked. We all do at some point. It happens. But just so you are aware, it was not a 2% river card. He had a 20% chance of making his set. If you look at it simply as 2% per out. He’s got two outs (both queens), and 5 cards to come (flop, turn, river)… then that’s 2x2x5=20. Likely closer to 23%. Still a suckout but he had his weak outs. Regardless… you will do the same to another sometime. Sucks, but move on… it will happen many more times
Yes, never ever feel bad about getting sucked out on. It happens and I’m surprised you didn’t get it all in preflop. Preflop you are about 80% to win (which means about 1 in 5 times you will lose). After the flop yeah it sucks but you can’t really feel bad about it.
A quick reference. I played yesterday and had KTss in a raised pot, had about 60BB effective. Flop comes TcJsQs. I bet, player goes all in for about 40BB into a pot about that size and I call knowing and expecting to be behind. Why? Because the only hand I have outs to any hand possible, there is some chance he is on just the nut flush draw and even against a set or 2 pair I have outs. As it turns out he has JT and I brick on both cards. THe math on that works out to 18 outs (9 spades, 3 kings, 3 9s and 3 Aces). Believe it or not mathematically I will win about 64% of the time. Villain needs to have both draws not be any of the 18 cards I need out of 45 left. Which leads to a Villain win%=(1-18/45)*(1-18/44). This game is not about winning any one hand, it’s about making decisions which over time will make you money.
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